Thursday, February 01, 2007
The First Post : Robert Fox: Gulf stands on brink of all-out war
American officials, particularly in the CIA, have criticised the British approach to dealing with the Iraqis, particularly the Shia militias in the south of the country.
A confidential British briefing paper says this is now a major bone of contention. 'The Americans believe the British should take out the Mahdi Army "
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Monday, January 29, 2007
Blogs of War � Video: John Kerry Calls the U.S. an “International Pariah”
Ignore links above
Article by Geo Tag
| Issue Date: January 2007, Posted On: 12/28/2006 |
| Forget the Koran. Forget the ayatollahs and the imams. If we want to understand the enemy we're fighting in Islam is not our opponent in For two years I've been researching a book about Alexander the Great's counter-guerrilla campaign in In other words, the clash of East and West is at bottom not about religion. It's about two different ways of being in the world. Those ways haven't changed in 2,300 years. They are polar antagonists, incompatible and irreconcilable. The West is modern and rational; its constituent unit is the nation. The East is ancient and visceral; its constituent unit is the tribe. What is a tribe anyway? Am I knocking tribalism? Not at all. In many ways I think people are happier in a tribal universe. Consider the appeal of post-apocalyptic movies like The Road Warrior or The Day After Tomorrow. Modern life is tough. Who can fault us if now and then we entertain the idea of going back to the simple life? The people we're fighting in How do you combat a tribal enemy? What is the nature of the tribe? What can sociology tell us about its attributes? The tribe respects power. The tribe must have a chief. It demands a leader. With a top dog, every underdog knows his place. He feels secure. He can provide security for this family. The tribe needs a Tony Soprano. It needs a Godfather. The The tribe needs a boss. Alexander understood this. Unlike the When we Americans declared in essence to the Iraqis, "Here, folks, you're free now; set up your own government," they looked at us as if we were crazy. The tribal mind doesn't want freedom; it wants security. Order. It wants a New Boss. The Iraqis lost all respect for us then. They saw us as naive, as fools. They saw that we could be beaten. The tribe is a warrior; its foundation is warrior pride. What the warrior craves before all else is respect. Respect from his own people and, even more, from his enemy. When we of the West understand this, as Alexander did, we'll have taken the first step toward solving the unsolvable. The tribe places no value on freedom. You can't sell "freedom" to tribesmen any more than you can sell "democracy." He doesn't want it. It violates his code. It threatens everything he stands for. The tribe is bound to the land. The tribe cannot be negotiated with. The tribe has no honor except within its own sphere, deriving justice for its own people. Its code is "Us versus Them." The outsider is a gentile, an infidel, a devil. These are just a few of the characteristics of the tribal mind. Now: what to do about this? How to deal with the tribal mind. To deal successfully with the tribe, a negotiator of the West must first grant it its pride and honor. The tribe's males must be addressed as warriors; its women must be treated with respect. The tribe must be left to its own land, to govern as it deems best. If you want to get out of a tribal war, you must find a scenario by which the tribe can declare itself victorious. The tribal mind is canny; it knows when it's whipped. But its warrior pride is so fierce, it cannot admit this. The tribe has to be allowed its face. How Alexander got out of a quagmire. Alexander made the tribesmen his equals. He acknowledged their warrior honor. When he and his army marched out to their next conquest, Alexander took the bravest of his former enemies with him as his Companions. They rode at his side in stations of honor; they dined at his shoulder in the royal pavilion. (Of course, he also beat the living hell out of the Afghans for three years prior, and when he took off, he left a fifth of his army to garrison the place.) The outlook for the Perhaps, in the end, our leaders, like Alexander, will figure some way to bring the tribal foe around. More likely, in my opinion, they'll arrive at the same conclusion as did Lord Roberts, the legendary British general. Lord Roberts fought (and defeated militarily) tribesmen in two bloody wars in Steven Pressfield's most recent book is "The Afghan Campaign: A Novel." © 2006 Steven Pressfield |
Iraqi Mojo: Fouad Ajami on Iraq
Katie: 10 Questions On Iraq
Questions by Katie Couric
1.
We’ve heard so much about Sunnis and Shia. What are the main religious differences between them? What do they have in common?
Big, complicated history. It begins with the death of the Prophet Muhammad in 632, leaving no male heir. The majority Sunni (literally orthodox, mainstream) community subscribed to the rule of the first three Caliphs who succeeded him. The minority movement, the Shia (literally the Partisans) of his son-in-law, Imam Ali, husband of his daughter Fatima, asserted that succession belongs to the Prophet’s family, to Ali in the first, and to the Prophet’s grandsons and their descendants. In the great civil war in the House of Islam that played out in the later years of the seventh century, the Sunni governments won, the Shia “martyrs” and oppositionists lost. In 680, The Prophet’s grandson, Imam Hussein, the hero-martyr of Shi’ism was killed in southern Iraq on the plains of Karbala. And with this, the great wound in Islam deepens forever. What Sunnis and Shia still have in common is belief in the unity of God, in the Prophet Muhammad, in the Quran. They are separated by temperament and by how they look at history.
2. Why are Sunnis and Shia politically divided? Could you tell us about the history of the two sects in Iraq?
The first question goes to the heart of this second one: They differ about legitimate power, and who should hold it. The Shia believe that power belongs to the pious, and to The Prophet’s family; the Sunnis believe that power and order have legitimacy of their own. In Iraq the Sunnis and the Shia are both Arab through and through. Iraq became a battleground between the (Sunni) Ottoman empire and the (Shia) Persian empire. The Sunnis, though a minority in Iraq, have ruled that country for centuries. The Shia were cut out of political power, and successive regimes in that country (the monarchy, the military regimes since the Revolution of 1958 that overthrew the monarchy) were based in the Sunni community. With the Shia holy cities and seminaries of Najaf and Karbala on Iraqi soil, the Shia clerics have had great say over the life of the Shia community.
3. Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen what appears to be a resurgence of sectarian violence in Iraq. Why is this happening now?
The sectarian violence is precisely what the Arab Sunni jihadists have sought to trigger, in alliance with the Saddamists. Last February, they attacked the sacred Shia mosque in Samarra. The result was predictable: The Shia were drawn into the fight. And now the Shia have extremists of their own, and death squads and avengers – the boys of Moqtada al-Sadr in the slums of Baghdad.
4. Is there any hope for Sunnis and Shia to live together peacefully in a democratic Iraq? Or is the ultimate solution some way of separating them into different states—as Senator Joe Biden has proposed?
In the long run, the Sunnis and the Shia are doomed to live together. In the past Iraqis prided themselves on the high rate of inter-marriage between Sunnis and Shia – Sushi is the label so many of these people go by, for wit. Partition will not work. Baghdad can’t be divided, and the Sunnis would be stranded in regions without oil. I have great respect for Senator Biden and have talked with him at great length over the years about Iraq and other Middle Eastern subjects, but he is off target here.
5. Two Shiite mosques and five Shiite-owned businesses in Detroit were vandalized earlier this month. The head of the Michigan Council on American-Islamic Relations said that many in the community believe it was an attack by Sunnis, though this hasn’t been proven. Is there also a Sunni-Shia divide among Muslims in the United States?
There is a Sunni-Shia divide in Detroit, in Amsterdam, wherever Muslims live, alas. Detroit because of the automotive industry, and the history of labor migration by poor Lebanese Shia, may have a Shia majority, though of course in the Muslim world as a whole the Shia are a minority.
6. Qatar recently held a conference intended to bring Sunnis and Shia closer together. How do you think sectarian fighting can be curbed in Iraq and elsewhere? Does it require a military or a political solution?
The conference in Qatar is o.k. as far as it goes. The problem is that there is in Qatar a very hugely influential Sunni cleric, of Egyptian background, Sheikh Yusuf Qaradawi, who is fairly strict and not given to kind thoughts about the Shia. The answer is both cultural and political: The Sunni Arabs will have to accept the claims of the Shia; for their part, the Shia must, with time, rid themselves of the attitude of opposition that has marked their history.
7. We know that the vast majority of Muslims are peaceful, honorable people. But what do you say to people who ask why almost every terrorist is a Muslim?
I say there is a painful truth here, and that one of the Arab world’s most influential and liberal journalists, the Saudi Abdulrahman al-Rashed, head of Al-Arrabiya television channel based in Dubai, bluntly observed that not all Muslims are terrorists, but all (most?) terrorists are Muslims. What is clear and indisputable is that violence and terror are on the loose in Islamic lands – and in Islamic communities in the West – and that it has religious support given it by free-lance preachers who have bent the faith to their own interpretation.
8. What motivates Islamic extremism? Is it repressive governments—the lack of democracy—as the president has said? Is it economic disadvantage?
Economic disadvantage is part of the story, but that interpretation misses a lot. The boys of 9/11 (the Egyptian Mohamed Atta, the Lebanese Ziyad Jarrah who piloted the plane forced down in Pennsylvania on that sad day) were not poor. Ayman al-Zawahiri and Osama bin Laden come from aristocracy and a merchant dynasty, respectively. It is, in part, the will to power, and a belief that Islam – as interpreted by these men – ought to prevail.
9. We seemed to have much of the Islamic world on our side in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. Why are we now so unpopular there? Is it just Iraq, or is it more than that?
Good question, but a seductive one. We did not have the Muslim world on our side after 9/11. Huge numbers of Muslims believed we got our comeuppance on that day, while others were embarrassed. Iraq complicated our lives, but the American position in Islamic lands was never brilliant to begin with. We befriend the rulers in the Arab world, and we are caught in the crossfire between the rulers and populations that resent them but can’t overthrow them. We are the perfect scapegoat for every problem under the sun. Anti-Americanism is the weapon of mass distraction, a clever man once said.
10. What is the biggest misconception Americans have about Islam?
People think that Islam is on the boil, overly political. But for the vast majority not caught up in radicalism and sectarian violence, it is a faith that provides solace and comfort, people still go on pilgrimage, give alms to the poor, turn to Islam for meaning, for a bit of shade, if you will, in a turbulent Islamic world. From Indonesia in the east to Morocco in the Western-most land of Islam, there are 1.2 billion Muslims. There is fanaticism among a dangerous minority, and ordinary life for the vast, silent majority. posted by Iraqi Mojo
Iraqi Mojo: Where Were You?
Read this when you have time. A Christian Iraqi tells about past and present.
Sunday, January 28, 2007
BizzyBlog
Do You Mean Credit Isn’t Automatically Evil (and Being Debt-Free Isn’t a Bed of Roses)?
Imagine that. The two major takeaways from the SmartMoney.com article are:
- There are challenges to living debt-free.
- There are times when having certain debts makes financial sense. For example, having a low-rate traditional fixed-rate mortgage with a rate of under 5%, not paying it off more quickly, and investing money you may have targeted towards paying the mortgage off more quickly in a reasonably aggressive manner will ordinarily leave you with more wealth when the mortgage is eventually paid off.
I’ll focus on the challenges to living debt-free in this post.
The biggest challenge is that if you are truly debt-free, you may not even have any credit established — and if you don’t have credit, you often can’t get credit. “Credit” in the broadest sense includes getting services that you don’t have to borrow money to obtain, but for which you still have to present some kind of proof of financial viability to get access to. In this broad scope, not having credit could even affect your ability to get a wireless phone, to avoid having to put down deposits to get utility, cable, or phone service, or to make other supposedly “routine” purchases.
Then there is the hassle you’ll likely face when traveling. Most rental-car companies insist on having a credit card number (a debit card will NOT suffice. More hotels are insisting that you guarantee your room with a credit card (debit cards are somewhat more likely to work here).
Putting the above potential problems aside, most people aspire to owning a home, and most people wishing to be totally debt-free usually don’t have the money to pay cash for a house. A person without a credit history or having a very sketchy one will often have a tough time getting a mortgage loan approved. It shouldn’t be that way, and if I were king of the world, I would force lenders to consider the absence of late payments on routine bills, such as utilities, wireless phone and the like positive evidence of creditworthiness. If lenders felt like they routinely needed proof (a fair request, I suppose), I would want the service providers I just named to report payment history to the bureaus. Voila, the “problem” of being debt-free without evidence of creditworthiness would be solved.
Since I’m not king (yet), the main ways to head off the potential “no credit, no approval” problem in advance of applying for a mortgage are:
- Get a general-purpose credit card (Visa/MC/Discover/Amex). Use it occasionally, and pay the bill in full when it’s due. The card will at least show up on your credit report (even Amex, as of some years ago). Whether the card’s unpaid balance shows up on the report, even when always paid in full, depends on the card, but I don’t think it matters that much to your perceived creditworthiness whether it does or doesn’t (if you think I’m wrong about that, let me know or leave a comment).
- If you already have a general purpose card or two already but never use them, do the things suggested in the previous step.
- If you can’t get approved for a general-purpose card because of no credit history, get a retail card, for which you will get approved if you either a) have a pulse, or b) can fog a mirror when you breathe. Charge a few things on it for 3-6 months and pay it in full, and you will probably have little difficulty getting approved for a general-purpose card.
- Have a checking account AND a savings account — A surprising number of people who are living debt-free without established credit also live outside the banking system. I like privacy as much as the next person, but this is not a good long-term idea. The credit-application scoring systems (different from your credit score) give a person a lot of points for having an open checking and an open savings account. You may get approved even if you are totally debt-free and don’t have much of a credit history (but don’t take it for granted that this is what will happen).
- Consider borrowing from a credit union where you are already a customer if it offers mortgages. The rates they offer may be a bit better too.
TheStockAdvisors.com - Boomers, dollars and debt
| Best of the Best: Today's Top Investment Ideas |
| Boomers, dollars and debt | | Digg It! |
| Thursday, 25 January 2007 | |
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In addition, the Adens share some thought-provoking commentary regarding government debt, the dollar and baby boomers from David Gallard of Casey Research, also a long standing expert in this sector. “We often discuss the unprecedented U.S. debt load and what it means for the economy, gold, the dollar and so on. But we rarely discuss the baby boomers and how this will affect the future, which is also one of the main reasons why we believe gold will continue to rise for years to come. In the excerpts that follow, David Gallard explains why… “Seventy eight million is the number of baby boomers who are in or approaching retirement. That’s the biggest demographic bulge in U.S. history, fully 26% of the population. "And many of those 78 million are in a jam. As they approach retirement, they are still carrying historic levels of debt and, on average, have woefully inadequate net worth — and much of that based on shaky housing prices. “In fact, 25% of the retiring boomers are facing retirement with a net worth of less than $50,000. You don’t need to be an accountant to see that they won’t get very far on so little. "Meanwhile, U.S. government debt now tops $9 trillion, before taking into account its unfunded obligations for Social Security and Medicare — debts that the retiring boomers will soon have their hands out to collect. “After adding in Social Security, Medicare and all the government’s other pay-later obligations, the current debt actually comes in at over $60 trillion—an amount so large, not one person in a million has a real sense of it. So let’s try to put that number into perspective. “A trillion is 1000 X 1000 X 1000 X 1000, or a million millions. President Reagan, himself a big spender, accurately pointed out that a stack of $1,000 bills four inches high makes you a millionaire, and that a trillion dollars would be a stack 67 miles high! The U.S. government owes 60 of those sky-piercing stacks of $1,000 bills. “It’s a lot of money. And it’s not just any kind of money. Amazingly, this unbacked currency of a bankrupt government is still the reserve currency of virtually every nation in the world today. But not, we think, for much longer. “To service its debt and keep the game going, the U.S. government must sell on the order of $2.5 billion per day in new Treasury bills, much of it to foreigners already sitting on something like $6 trillion of U.S. paper. "Recognizing that the U.S. has little capacity to rein in its profligate spending and has neither the intent nor the ability to actually pay off its $60 trillion debt in money worth anywhere near what it’s worth today, foreigners are increasingly leery about accumulating more greenbacks. “So what are nervous bureaucrats to do? The answer is to depreciate the currency – and as quietly as possible. That allows the government to meet its obligations, but with ever more worthless dollars. It’s their only way to buy time. “In other words, the total amount of money in the system – what we ‘print’ — is whatever the government finds convenient from one day to the next. That’s a way of saying that the U.S. government is planning to paper over all its many obligations and accelerate a trend that has been in motion since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. “While no one can say with certainty how this will play out, there is one truth you can take to the bank. Throughout all of human history, gold has always held its value as a monetary instrument. That sort of shock-proof durability cannot be claimed by any paper currency, certainly not by the dollar, which has lost 70% of its value since abandoning the gold standard in 1971. |
The Skeptical Optimist: Pie Chart of Who Owns the Debt, and Bar Chart of Who’s Been Buying It
In that environment, it’s tough to figure out who we’re supposed to be scared of, isn’t it? I gave up a long time ago; I’m just grateful they’re helping (indirectly) to fund our economy’s growth, and helping (indirectly) to keep our tax rates lower than they’d otherwise have to be to keep our debt burden (debt-to-GDP ratio) from growing. (Thank you, foreigners! Maybe you should consider immigrating...)
In any case, the two biggest groups of T-bond buyers swamped everybody else (see the two longest bars at the top of the chart). Those two groups are made up of you, me, our families, our friends, and our neighbors. "
Mary Anne and Pamela Aden have long been among the most respected advisors in the resource sector and in the latest issue of 