Monday, April 27, 2009

VDH's Private Papers::Crazy Times - Crazier Ones to Follow

VDH's Private Papers::Crazy Times - Crazier Ones to Follow: "Crazy Times — Crazier Ones to Follow"

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April 27, 2009
Crazy Times — Crazier Ones to Follow

Tribune Media Services

We are in a weird age.

Do the smart thing, we were told, and invest in a 401(k) retirement account. Buy into the American dream and own your own home. But lately it seems that those who put their money in low-earning passbook savings accounts or rented rather than buying may have been better off.

Indeed, almost all the old familiar benchmarks of modern American life seem to be going by the wayside.

The blue-chip corporations that were long the brand names of world manufacturing and finance — American International Group, Bank of America, Bear Stearns, Chrysler, Citigroup, General Motors and Lehman Brothers — are either gone or teetering on insolvency.

The old-guard newspaper industry is fading — the Tribune Company is in bankruptcy court, Hearst at one point threatened to shut down the San Francisco Chronicle, the Rocky Mountain News is already gone. The stock price of The New York Times is worth about the same as its Sunday paper.

Washington is more confusing. Bill Clinton balanced his last budgets but raised taxes. George Bush increased deficits but cut taxes. But now taxes, spending and deficits soar all at once. We are lectured that prior reckless federal spending and borrowing got us into this mess — but now are told that even more federal spending and borrowing will get us out of it.

We've seen housing sales slump when home prices were high but interest rates low. Or when prices were low but interest high. Or when prices and interest were alike high. But we never have seen a bad housing market in which both home prices and mortgage interest rates were low.

Nonsense is passed off as wisdom. Those who caused the financial meltdown walked away with millions in bonuses while taxpayers covered the debts they ran up. The big-spending government claims it may cut our annual $1.7 trillion deficit in half by 2012 — but only after piling up trillions more in national debt.

In our Orwellian world, borrowing to spend what we don't have has been renamed "stimulus." Those who pay no federal income taxes — almost half of Americans — can somehow be promised an income tax "cut." In the new borrowing of trillions of dollars here and trillions there, billions of dollars now sounds like pocket change.

When Americans turn to their political parties for answers, they are even more confused. Populist Democrats such as Sen. Chris Dodd and President Barack Obama took more AIG campaign cash than did pro-business Republicans.

And the list of big-tax liberals who cheated or avoided taxes they want to raise on others is astounding — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who oversees the Internal Revenue Service; failed Obama Cabinet nominee Tom Daschle; and Rep. Charles Rangel, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.

Yet conservative Republicans during the Bush administration ran up the debt and increased federal spending far more than did liberals under Bill Clinton. A Republican president has not balanced a budget since Dwight Eisenhower did it over a half-century ago.

Abroad, we thought piracy ended with the age of sail — only to learn that the world's 21st century navies either will not or cannot sink a few brigands in speedboats. Meanwhile, a U.N. conference against racism showcased Iranian president — and Holocaust-denier — Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spouting anti-Semitic hatred.

The old "bad" unilateral war in Iraq is now quiet; the once "good" multilateral effort in Afghanistan is not. We are warned that we must be careful not to explicitly associate the radical Islam that fueled the Sept. 11 attacks with terrorism; yet, we are advised that we should worry about returning American veterans as potential terrorists.

When our president references the 19th and 20th centuries, he apologizes for American sins but stays silent about the United States defeating Nazis, fascists, Japanese militarists and Soviet communists. The world hears contrition about Americans dropping the bomb to end World War II but never remorse from those responsible for Darfur, Grozny or Tibet.

There have been a few crazy years like 2009 in American history — 1860, 1929, 1941 and 1968. And given what followed all of them, it might be wise to prepare for even crazier times for us ahead.

On the Patio

On the Patio:
A Toast
"'There are good ships,
and there are wood ships,
The ships that sail the sea.
But the best ships, are friendships,
And may they always be.'"

Thursday, April 23, 2009

The American Spectator : Obama's Torture Policy for the Unborn

The American Spectator : Obama's Torture Policy for the Unborn

Obama's Torture Policy for the Unborn

If achieving world peace required torturing a single baby, asks a character in Fyodor Dostoyevsky's The Brothers Karamazov, would it be worth it?

"Imagine that you are creating a fabric of human destiny with the object of making men happy in the end, giving them peace and rest at last, but that it was essential and inevitable to torture to death only one tiny creature -- that baby beating its breast with its fist, for instance -- and to found that edifice on its unavenged tears, would you consent to be the architect on those conditions? Tell me, and tell the truth."

The liberalism that Barack Obama seeks to complete answers Dostoyevsky's question with an emphatic yes. What is Obama's abortion-on-demand-forever policy but the building of a modern American way of life upon the graves of tortured babies? And not just the unavenged tears of one baby but millions of them.

This week, however, Obama did avenge the tears of terrorists. World peace, he said, isn't worth theirs. He lectured the CIA that "What makes the United States special and what makes you special is precisely the fact that we are willing to uphold our values and ideals even when it's hard."

Obama's prim pontifications about America's "values and ideals" inspired Chris Matthews and Jack Cafferty, among other deep and careful thinkers, to mull over the question: If torturing terrorists works -- as the Obama administration had to admit grudgingly this week -- is it okay? No, of course not, the chattering class proudly concluded.

One wonders why. What do they care? Having already accepted abortion and euthanasia -- which are nothing more than the expedient killing of the unborn and the elderly -- why should the expedient torture of terrorists, a lesser evil, trouble them? Oh, that's right: the terrorists are guilty and the guilty under the ministrations of modern liberalism never suffer. Pain in modern life is for the innocent.

Terrorists, we're told by pro-abortion liberals, suffer excruciating pain while the ejected unborn and euthanized elderly feel nothing. And even if the latter do suffer pain, say these liberals, that pain is worth it. After all, abortion and euthanasia sustain a pleasant and peaceful lifestyle for the strong. Let the dead bury the dead. Or, as the Supreme Court has said, imagine the disruption to America's way of life if stare decisis in the case of Roe v. Wade disappeared and women couldn't plan their careers and futures without the expectation of legal abortion for years to come.

Obama's liberalism is not an opponent of human rights abuses but an embodiment of them. The CIA restricts itself to methods far less ruthless than those permitted by the platform of the Democratic Party. When will Obama bring his own platform into line with the Geneva Accords?

It is a little late in the day for Obama to worry about America's moral reputation. Resisting evil even "when it is hard" hasn't interested liberalism for at least four decades. It rests on an ideology of expedient evil and crass utilitarianism.

With St. Paul, Western civilization, before modern liberalism ransacked it, said: "One may not do evil so that good may result from it." But then modern liberalism came along and reversed the formulation and now insists in the case of everything from therapeutic cloning to killing unborn children to dehydrating the elderly that one should do evil so that good may come from it.

Obama only now rediscovers the Christian ethic for terrorists, even as he weaves the "fabric of human destiny" with the tissue of tortured children.

Gun Control History Lesson � GOLDBLOOM’S PADDED CELL

Gun Control History Lesson � GOLDBLOOM’S PADDED CELL

In 1929, the Soviet Union established gun control. From 1929 to 1953, about 20 million dissidents, unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and exterminated.

In 1911, Turkey established gun control. From 1915 to 1917, 1.5 million Armenians, unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and exterminated.

Germany established gun control in 1938 and from 1939 to 1945, a total of 13 million Jews and others who were unable to defend themselves were rounded up and exterminated.

China established gun control in 1935. From 1948 to 1952, 20 million political dissidents, unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and exterminated.

Guatemala established gun control in 1964. From 1964 to 1981, 100,000 Mayan Indians, unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and exterminated.

Uganda established gun control in 1970. From 1971 to 1979, 300,000 Christians unable to defend themselves es, were rounded up and
exterminated.

Cambodia established gun control in 1956. From 1975 to 1977, one million ‘educated ‘ people, unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and exterminated.

Defenseless people rounded up and exterminated in the 20th Century
because of gun control: 56 million.

It has now been 12 months since gun owners in Australia were forced by new law to surrender 640,381 personal firearms to be destroyed by their own government, a program costing Australia taxpayers more than $500 million dollars. The first year results are now in:
Australia-wide, homicides are up 3.2 percent.
Australia-wide, assaults are up 8.6 percent.
Australia-wide, armed robberies are up 44 percent. (yes, 44 percent)
In the state of Victoria alone, homicides with firearms are now up 300 percent. Note that while the law-abiding citizens turned them in, the
criminals did not, and criminals still possess their guns. It will never happen here? I bet the Aussies said that too!
While figures over the previous 25 years showed a steady decrease in armed robbery with firearms, this has changed drastically upward in the past 12 months, since criminals now are guaranteed that their
prey is unarmed. There has also been a dramatic increase in break-
ins and assaults of the ELDERLY. Australian politicians are at a loss to explain how public safety has decreased, after such monumental effort and expense was expended in successfully ridding Australian society of guns.

The Australian experience and the other historical facts above prove it.
You won’t see this data on the US evening news, or hear politicians disseminating this information. Guns in the hands of honest citizens save lives and property and, yes, gun - control laws adversely affect
only the law-abiding citizens. Take note my fellow Americans, before it’s too late!

The next time someone talks in favor of gun control, please remind him of this history lesson.

With Guns………..We Are ‘Citizens’, without Them……..We Are
‘Subjects’.

During W.W.II the Japanese decided not to invade America because they knew most Americans were ARMED! Note: Admiral Yamamoto
who crafted the attack on Pearl Harbor had attended Harvard from
1919-1921 & was Naval Attaché to the U. S. 1925-28. Most of our Navy was destroyed at Pearl Harbor & our Army had been deprived of funding & was ill prepared to defend the country. It was reported that when asked why Japan did not follow up the Pearl Harbor attack with an invasion of the U . S. Mainland, his reply was that he had lived in the U.S. & knew that almost all households had guns.

If you value your freedom Please spread this anti-gun control message to all your friends! The world is a dangerous place, not because of those who do evil, but because of those who look on and do nothing!

Monday, April 20, 2009

Key witness in passport fraud case of Clinton, McCain, and Barack Obama fatally shot � Count Us Out

Key witness in passport fraud case of Clinton, McCain, and Barack Obama fatally shot � Count Us Out

A key witness in a federal probe into passport information stolen from the State Department was fatally shot in front of a District church, the Metropolitan Police Department said yesterday.

Lt. Quarles Harris Jr., 24, who had been cooperating with a federal investigators, was found late Thursday night slumped dead inside a car, in front of the Judah House Praise Baptist Church in Northeast, said Cmdr. Michael Anzallo, head of the department’s Criminal Investigations Division.

Cmdr. Anzallo said a police officer was patrolling the neighborhood when gunshots were heard, then Lt. Harris was found dead inside the vehicle, which investigators would describe only as a blue car.

Emergency medics pronounced him dead at the scene.

City police said they do not know whether his death was a direct result of his cooperation with federal investigators.

“We don’t have any information right now that connects his murder to that case,” Cmdr. Anzallo said.

Police say a “shot spotter” device helped an officer locate Lt. Harris.

A State Department spokeswoman yesterday declined to comment, saying the investigation into the passport fraud is ongoing.

The Washington Times reported April 5 that contractors for the State Department had improperly accessed passport information for presidential candidates Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John McCain, which resulted in a series of firings that reached into the agency’s top ranks.

One agency employee, who was not identified in documents filed in U.S. District Court, was implicated in a credit-card fraud scheme after Lt. Harris told federal authorities he obtained “passport information from a co-conspirator who works for the U.S. Department of State.”

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/apr/19/key-witness-in-passport-fraud-case-fatally-shot/

April 19, 2009 -

Saturday, April 18, 2009

The Obama Deception Complete Movie (2009) English - Степашка

The Obama Deception Complete Movie (2009) English - Степашка: "The Obama Deception Part 1 through 12".

!!!!!

Brutally Honest: "extremism in the defense of liberalism is no vice"

Brutally Honest: "extremism in the defense of liberalism is no vice"

"extremism in the defense of liberalism is no vice"

George Neumayr:

Modern liberals measure "progress" not by the unfolding fulfillment of the natural moral law but by its elimination. Consequently, most of what is labeled "progress" is basically just regress, a return, under a glossier guise, to the practices of antiquity and pre-Christian paganism.

Pagans stuck the inconvenient elderly on snow drifts; moderns dehydrate them to death in hospitals. Pagans left unwanted babies to die on hilltops; moderns bury them in bins behind Planned Parenthood clinics. Pagans attended orgies, moderns attend "gay weddings."

In its deepening moral squalor, in its raw defiance of reality as God made it, the Brave New World is as barbaric as the old one. That Hillary Clinton and other architects of the Brave New World are now forced to grapple clumsily with piracy is somehow fitting. Their "new world order" is intrinsically disordered, a reckless ideological experiment that explodes in recurring currents of chaos, discontent, and lawlessness. Why not piracy too?

The recent gusher of globalist babble at the G-20 summit is exposed by the rise of piracy as a total sham. And the rise of piracy is one more proof of Dambisa Moyo's thesis in Dead Aid -- that ceaseless Western government-to-government handouts to Africa, which are just a new version of white colonialism, have frozen the continent in a helpless and horrid past. After a trillion dollars over sixty years, the only vivid display of entrepreneurial activity in Africa today is…piracy.

National Review noted this week that Bono's organization, One, is organizing a campaign of attacks against Moyo's book. Perhaps Bono can add pirates to his to-do list or maybe co-host a few Park Avenue parties for them with Al Sharpton.

But having already accepted de facto piracy by African governments -- most aid, Moyo observes, evaporates in corruption -- the engineers of the new world order aren't likely to win the "war on piracy" or even fight it.

...

In the giddy days of the campaign, one cheerleading journalist for the San Francisco Chronicle, Mark Morford, speculated that Obama might be a "Lightworker" for the globe -- "that rare kind of attuned being who has the ability to lead us not merely to new foreign policies or health care plans or whatnot, but who can actually help usher in a new way of being on the planet…"

This "new way of being on the planet" looks awfully familiar, a return to history's most dismal, farcical, and evil chapters with tyranny, decadence, and false religion. This week the new way of being on the planet resembled the 18th century -- pirates abroad, tax-revolting tea parties at home, and a president, acting like a king, who collected excessive taxes and hatched extreme plans (such as forcing doctors and nurses to perform abortions against their consciences) while his aides sputtered about "extremists."

George Washington was an extremist in George III's eyes, and maybe even a disgruntled military veteran too. But under the madness of King Obama, extremism in the defense of liberalism is no vice and the citizenry's attempt to moderate it no virtue.

Neumayr's playing hammer here, nailing modern liberalism with effect. God bless him.

Do your part to counter the barbarism of today's leftist mind and pass this one on.

GraphOilogy: “We had everything but money,” A Suggested Guidebook for the “Greater Depression”

GraphOilogy: “We had everything but money,” A Suggested Guidebook for the “Greater Depression”: "“We had everything but money” is a collection of first person accounts of the Great Depression in the United States. Although, it appears to be out of print, it is widely available online. I recommend it as a very good guidebook for our present circumstances, what many are calling the “Greater Depression.”"

Figures on government spending and debt - Yahoo! Finance

Figures on government spending and debt - Yahoo! Finance

Figures on government spending and debt

  • Friday April 17, 2009, 7:45 pm EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) --

Total public debt subject to limit April 16      11,125,587
Statutory debt limit 12,104,000
Total public debt outstanding April 16 11,183,899
Operating balance April 16 257,351
Interest fiscal year 2009 thru February 148,762
Interest same period 2008 198,518
Deficit fiscal year 2009 thru February 764,525
Deficit same period 2008 264,541
Receipts fiscal year 2009 thru February 860,877
Receipts same period 2008 967,153
Outlays fiscal year 2009 thru February 1,625,402
Outlays same period 2008 1,231,694
Gold assets in March 11,041

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

The Cost of Global Warming: A Story in Pictures � The Foundry

The Cost of Global Warming: A Story in Pictures � The Foundry: "human-global-warming"

And what should be the final nail in the coffin: All this economic pain is for very little, if any, environmental gain. Analysis by the Environmental Protection Agency concludes that if the U.S. reduces CO2 emissions 60 percent by 2050, it will reduce global temperature by 0.1 to 0.2 degree Centigrade by 2095. A multi–lateral approach wouldn’t fare much better. Why? Well, there’s a lot of reasons. After all, the science behind global warming is anything but conclusive, but one reason could be how small man’s contribution to carbon dioxide emissions is.
human-global-warming

  • Author: Nick Loris
  • Interact: Sphere
  • Share This

The Difference Between Winning and Success - Lunch w/ TED - the evangelical outpost

The Difference Between Winning and Success - Lunch w/ TED - the evangelical outpost

http://www.evangelicaloutpost.com/archives/2009/04/the-difference.html

Coach John Wooden

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Vinegar and Honey: Seasons Of Life

Vinegar and Honey: Seasons Of Life

Seasons Of Life



There was an Indian Chief who had four sons. He wanted his sons to learn not to judge things too quickly. So he sent them each on a quest, in turn, to go and look at a pear tree that was a great distance away.

The first son went in the winter, the second in the spring, the third in summer, and the youngest son in the fall. When they had all gone and come back, he called them together to describe what they had seen.

The first son said that the tree was ugly, bent, and twisted.The second son said no it was covered with green buds and full of promise. The third son disagreed; he said it was laden with blossoms that smelled so sweet and looked so beautiful, it was the most graceful thing he had ever seen. The last son disagreed with all of them; he said it was ripe and drooping with fruit, full of life and fulfillment.

The man then explained to his sons that each of them had reported correctly, because they had each seen but one season in the tree's life. He told them that you cannot judge a tree, or a person, by only one season,and that the essence of who they are and the pleasure, joy, and love that come from that life can only be measured at the end,when all the seasons are passed.

If you give up when it's winter, you will miss the promise of your spring, the beauty of your summer, the fulfillment of your fall.

Moral: Don't let the pain of one season destroy the joy of all the rest. Don't judge life by one difficult season. Persevere through the difficult seasons and better ones are sure to come.


"To everything there is a season,a time for every purpose under the sun."
Ecclesiastes 3:1 KJV

Curmudgeonly & Skeptical�

Curmudgeonly & Skeptical�

IRS, Fed Reserve, gold, taxes

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Reformed Voices: Learn the 10 Commandments

Reformed Voices: Learn the 10 Commandments

Learn the 10 Commandments

Is it possible to learn the 10 Commandments and be able to recall them in any order in under 12 minutes? You may be surprised.



part 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A64HS79546o

part 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1NS0EPXkss



Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Spiritual Juxtapostioning - Part Two | Verum Serum

Spiritual Juxtapostioning - Part Two | Verum Serum

Spiritual Juxtapostioning - Part Two

Scott on April 7, 2009

To me, one of the most striking juxtapositions in the Christian faith is the contrast between Light and Darkness.

Isaiah 9:2 - The people who walked in darkness have seen a great light;
those who dwelt in a land of deep darkness, on them has light shined.

John 1:5 - The light shines in the darkness, but the darkness has not understood it.

Not that the contrast of Light and Darkness is of such a complex nature that it takes theologians and philosophers to make the comparison. On the contrary, it is one of the most fundamental and obvious contrasts in the natural world. But in the spiritual and metaphysical economy of things, Light and Darkness take on monumental and eternal significance.

Non-Christian have at times objected to the idea that they are walking in darkness. They frequently equate darkness with evil, so when they hear someone claiming that they are living/walking in darkness, they take offense. However, the intent of using the term darkness is not to equate it with evil, but to instead equate it with a lack of awareness and/or understanding,

In other words, if someone was born in a cave in complete darkness and this person lived their entire life in that darkness, they would have no idea what darkness was because living in the dark cave, they would have never seen the thing called light. Thus they would have nothing with which to compare their darkness. No amount of explaining what darkness is would make a difference until someone showed them light. It is only in the presence of light that darkness is revealed and understood.

Plato’s Allegory of the Cave brings these ideas into play in some respects, adding the nuance of shadows as well. However, I like a different story involving darkness, light, and people in a cave:

-

THE CAVE PEOPLE (Adapted from a story by Max Lucado)

LONG AGO, or maybe not so long ago, there was a tribe who lived in a dark, cold cavern. The cave dwellers would huddle together and cry against the chill. Loud and long they wailed. It was all they did because it was all they knew to do. The sounds in the cave were mournful but the people didn’t know it, for they had never known the joy of life.

But then, one day, they heard a different voice rise above their pitiful wailing. “I have heard your cries,” it announced, the words echoing through the cave. “I have felt your chill and seen your darkness. I have come to help.”

The cave people grew quiet. They had never heard this voice. The message of hope sounded strange to their ears.

“How can we know you have come to help?” asked one of the tribe.

Out from the shadows stepped a figure they had never seen before. “Trust me,” he answered. “I have what you need.”

The cave people peered through the darkness at the stranger. He was stacking something, then stooping and stacking more.

“What are you doing?” one cried, nervous. The stranger didn’t answer.

“What are you making?” one shouted even louder. Still no response.

“Tell us!” demanded a third.

The visitor stood and spoke in the direction of the voices. “I have what you need.” With that he turned to the pile at his feet and lit it. Wood ignited, flames erupted, and light filled the cavern.

The cave people turned away in fear. “Put it out!” they cried. “It hurts to see it.”

“Light always hurts before it helps,” he answered. “Step closer. The pain will soon pass.”

“Not I,” declared a voice.

“Nor I,” agreed a second.

“Only a fool would risk exposing his eyes to such light,” declared a third.

The stranger stood next to the fire. “Would you prefer the darkness? Would you prefer the cold? Don’t rely on your fears. Look to the light and take a step of faith.”

For a long time no one spoke. The people hovered in groups covering their eyes. The stranger stood next to the fire. “It’s warm here. Come, join me.” he invited.

“He’s right,” one from behind him announced. “It is warmer.”

The stranger turned and saw a figure slowly stepping toward the fire. “I can open my eyes now,” she proclaimed. “I can see.”

“Come closer,” invited the fire builder.

She did. She stepped into the ring of light. “It’s so warm!” She extended her hands and sighed as her chill began to pass.

“Come, everyone! Feel the warmth,” she invited.

“Silence, woman!” cried one of the cave dwellers. “Dare you lead us into your folly? Leave us and take your light with you.”

She turned to the stranger. “Why won’t they come?”

‘They choose the chill, for though it’s cold, it’s what they know. They’d rather be cold than have to change.” The stranger looked sad.

“And they would rather live in the dark?” she asked in disbelief.

“Yes, they would rather live in the dark,” said the stranger.

The now-warm woman stood silent, looking first into the darkness and then at the man in the light.

“Will you leave the fire?” he asked.

She paused, and then answered, “I cannot. I cannot bear the cold.” Then she spoke again. “But nor can I bear the thought of my people in darkness.”

“You don’t have to,” he responded, reaching into the fire and removing a stick. “Carry this to your people. Tell them the light is here, and the light is warm. Tell them the light is for all who desire it.”

And so she took the small flame and stepped into the shadows.

-

Two Easters ago, I worked with my good friend (who was also the worship pastor of the church we were attending at the time) to put together an Easter service that would provide, not just the traditional Easter story (which is perfect all on its own), but that would also provide some additional opportunities and some other forms to convey the truths of Easter to the unchurched. I knew this Max Lucado story and had always felt that it needed a little more fleshing out, thus I adapted it and tweaked it a bit into the form that you see above. I am not sure if Lucado wrote it with Plato’s Cave Allegory in mind or if it was just coincidence. What I find fascinating is that Plato, almost 2500 years ago, seized upon the ideas of darkness, light and shadow and saw within them analogies to life and human existence.

For those times in my life when darkness has arrived in some form and has dimmed my view of my faith and has obstructed my view of Christ, it is only the undimmed and unwavering light of Truth and Grace that clears away the darkness and the shadows that accompany it. Sometimes I am unaware of the darkness. It comes gradually, like the loss of light with the setting sun. Then I am immersed in my own unique brand of dark, shaded by pride or anger or arrogance or judgmentalism.

Until…BAM! The Light breaks through the darkness and reveals the room of shadows in which I had been living. And then I am again reminded of the quote from John Newton that I mentioned in Part I:

My memory is nearly gone, but I remember two things: That I am a great sinner and that Christ is a great Saviour.

What is Birkat Hachamah? - Birkat Hachamah

What is Birkat Hachamah? - Birkat Hachamah

What is Birkat Hachamah?

An Overview of this Rare Blessing

G‑d made the two great lights: the greater light to rule the day, and the lesser light to rule the night . . . And it was evening and it was morning, a fourth day.—Genesis 1:16, 19

One who sees the sun at its turning point should say, "Blessed is He who reenacts the works of Creation." And when is this? Abaya said: every 28th year.—Talmud, Tractate Berachot 59b

Every 28 years the sun returns to the same position, at the same time of the week, that it occupied at the time of its creation—at the beginning of the fourth day of creation. A special blessing – called Birkat Hachamah, "the sun blessing" – is recited to mark this event. Due to the rarity of this event, this blessing is customarily recited amid large public gatherings of men, women and children.

This year, we will perform this special mitzvah on the morning of April 8This year, 5769, we will perform this special mitzvah on the morning of April 8 (the morning before Passover).

The blessing is traditionally preceded and followed by a short selection of Psalms and prayers.

The existence of nearly all life on Earth is fueled by light from the sun. Every morning without fail, the sun rises in the east and bathes us with its sustaining rays, causing flora to grow and, through the process of photosynthesis, providing oxygen for all fauna.

Some may call this phenomenon nature.

We will gather on April 8th and declare otherwise:

"Blessed are You, Lord our G‑d, King of the universe, who reenacts the works of creation."

Monday, April 06, 2009

Rally: Too Flashy For Our Liking | The Big Picture

Rally: Too Flashy For Our Liking | The Big Picture

David Rosenberg, the soon-to-be former Economist for Merrill Lynch, had a very prescient commentary last week about the 25% four week rally on Friday:

As for this 25% rally in three weeks – the consensus has swung to the view that this is a real inflection point. One warning. We saw this happen in late 2001 and early 2002 too … big, big rally; early cyclicals flew; the markets thought we were in for a V-shaped recovery … it was longer away than many at the time believed and many were burnt as a result. And keep in mind that the ‘second derivative’ on growth began to improve in the fourth quarter of 2001, and the S&P 500 still did not bottom for another year.

Currently, the equity market is priced for $70 on earnings on a going-forward basis, or a 75% rebound. And with retailing stocks up 30%, leisure/accommodation up 35%, and the homebuilders up 40%, the market is priced, amazingly, for a revival that is led by the consumer! (in fact, the only S&P sector that is now trading at P/E multiples that are at post-2001 highs is the consumer cyclical group). If we see that in the next year, we will be the first to hang up our Hewlett Packards. Being up 25% in a year and staying bearish … well, shame.

Achieving that in less than a month – come on. Too flashy for our liking.

In fact, let’s learn from history. The only times we have ever seen the stock market surge close to this much in such a short time frame were:

* December 1929
* June 1931
* August 1932
* May 1933
* July 1938
* September 1982

Only in September 1982 and in May 1933 was the equity market embarking on a new bull phase. But guess what? By the time the S&P 500 surged 25%, it had already crossed above its 200-day moving average. So call us when the S&P 500 crosses the 1,000 mark – another 20% to go. That is how deeply entrenched this particular bear market has been – that even after this massive rally, the onus is still on the bulls! Consider as well that on 4 of the 6 occasions that the equity market staged such a huge rally over such a short time period, it relapsed. So we are going to wait this out, acknowledging that we could be late to the party. We still feel the downside risks are too high to be involved.

Ashes Ashes All Fall Down: We're Coming Home!

Ashes Ashes All Fall Down: We're Coming Home!

We're Coming Home!

Many years ago, when I was teaching history at a high school in Texas, one of my students was diagnosed with cancer. A rare cancer. She underwent aggressive treatment in Texas, and then in California. And about 6 months after her initial diagnosis we all received an email from her dad that started with the following words: "We're coming home!" While the email appeared optimistic and excited on the surface, I knew that my student was coming home to die. The cancer was not in remission. All treatment options had been exhausted. Within two months she would be gone.

Today I look at America and those words, "we're coming home!", rattle around in my weary brain. The markets are up, 72,000 people attended the national collegiate basketball semi-final in Detroit this past weekend (20,000 more than had ever attended in the past), many restaurants in my community are up 20% in sales from this time last year. And yet even a cursory glance at the underlying economic numbers makes one wince with pain: U6 unemployment at 16+% and growing by close to a MILLION individuals per month, Consumer Debt still tipping the scales at over 15% of GDP, a crashing import-export economy, government-sponsored (and taxplayer funded) bailouts and rescues for criminal banking and financial sector CEO's, etc.

We're coming home! When fifteen year old Clara came home---full of smiles and hugs and love---she did so knowing that the end was near. She was determined to make the very best of her final days, surrounded by family and friends. Her parents knew that their daughter would soon die, and as devout believers in a Christian God, they gained strength from the knowledge that their precious child would soon be in "a better place". But despite their faith, Clara's parents were destroyed. For them, he death of their only daughter would kill them as well. And in many respects, they too came home to die.

I believe that the American people are beginning to understand that the future is bleak. So many jobs destroyed, so little savings, no safety nets, no honest government to care for them, no access to health care, no hope for the future. And millions upon millions of Americans are, in a final gasp and haze of debt spending, maxing out all of their remaining credit cards, and going to basketball games and dining out and seeing the world! One last hurrah before they too reach the end.

We're coming home.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Curmudgeonly & Skeptical�

Curmudgeonly & Skeptical�: "Family of Irving 'Bud' Feldkamp,
Dies in Montana Plane Crash
Owner of the Nation's Largest Privately Owned Abortion Chain,"

Thursday, March 26, 2009

The Oil Drum | The Next Five Years: Peak Lite and the Current Oil Picture

The Oil Drum | The Next Five Years: Peak Lite and the Current Oil Picture: "Conclusions

While the oil industry is historically cyclical"

Conclusions

While the oil industry is historically cyclical, I believe we are approaching the point at which the industry will no longer be able to build out enough new projects to stay ahead of demand. This could manifest itself as peak oil, in which case the rate of depletion permanently overtakes the rate at which new production comes online. Or it could first manifest as peak lite, in which case new production still stays somewhat ahead of depletion, but can't keep up with new demand. In either of these situations, I think the historical cyclicality of the oil industry will disappear. In early 2008 I thought we had reached that point, but it appears that we had at least one more cycle ahead.

While it is too early to tell with a high level of confidence just where we are on the depletion curve, the summer of 2008 provided of taste of life in an oil-constrained world. The current level of underinvestment and the prospect of higher taxes are setting up another situation in which spare capacity erodes, leading to higher oil prices and greater volatility. Add to this the prospect of a global oil production peak, and I have trouble seeing a case where oil prices will remain stable in the coming years.

As an investor, I use blue chip oil stocks as a defensive measure against much higher prices. I am not one who subscribes to the idea that oil companies are going to be put out of business by running out of oil, or by ethanol, algal biodiesel, or any other combination of alternative fuel technologies. In fact, I strongly believe that if an alternative technology begins to look attractive enough, oil companies have deep enough pockets to shift their business in that direction. But I think that's unlikely to happen any time soon.

As a consumer, it would probably pay to evaluate just how much higher prices might impact your budget - and then take action. Can you sustain oil prices that return to $150/bbl or more? Even if you can, do you want that uncertainty hanging over your budget? If not, then it would be prudent to take steps to minimize the personal impact of high oil prices. Steps to consider include utilizing more fuel efficient transportation, public transportation, ride-sharing, and if possible locating closer to your place of employment.

Plan ahead and don't get caught off-guard like so many did last summer. It is only a matter of time before history repeats itself. Here's hoping our political leaders make policy decisions that won't worsen the impact.

Chicago Boyz � Blog Archive � Environmentalism and Reality

Chicago Boyz � Blog Archive � Environmentalism and Reality:
Pittsburg
"sol vason Says:
March 25th, 2009 at 6:19 am

When I moved to pittsburgh, pa in 1970 the polution index ranged from a low of 100 to a high of 300. Environmentalists took no pride in these numbers. The closed down the steel mills and all the other smokestack businesses. Drove them overseas to India and China, I suppose. By 1980 our air was clean and there weas massive unemployment. Many Pittsburgers left town. During that time I could hire PhDs for $7.00/hour. People with 30 years on-the-job experience for $6.00.

Soon other industries left town. Pittsburgh used to be the #3 city in the US in terms of corporate headquarters. Today it is not in the top 300. Even the Mellons and Heinzs sold out and left town.

But now Pittsburgh has clean air. And because so many people have left, very high property taxes. And laws that keeep new imndustries out. Today our graduates all leave town to find new jobs. Except the dumb ones.

Obama says he is going to pass laws to eliminate the cycle of boom and bust. Because no one can gaurantee permanent boom this means we will have permanet bust."

Chicago Boyz � Blog Archive � Environmentalism and Reality

Chicago Boyz � Blog Archive � Environmentalism and Reality

From time to time if I am stuck conversing with a die-hard environmentalist, I will ask them what they think the WORST thing that has happened with regards to the environment is, in their opinion. I usually don’t listen to their reply to closely and then tell them what they OUGHT to be saying

The Fall of Communism and End of Socialism

Under Communism prior to Deng Xiaoping, mainland China was a starving wasteland with few consumer goods, frequent famines, and millions living in caves (no joke). After Deng unleashed his reforms in the countryside, which migrated to the cities, the Chinese government removed the boot of this failed dogma and unleashed a nation of hard charging entrepreneurs and traders. For years the overseas Chinese were some of the most successful business people in Asia - now they were free to raise the standards of living of their own people.

Power plants were built - millions of homes didn’t even have heat - and the country roared to life. New cities were built, highways, ports and railways crossed the country, and now China is the manufacturer for a huge variety of what you have in your house today.

And what did the Chinese consumer want? They wanted what YOU have - a car (bicycles went by the wayside as soon as they had the money), a nice flat, overseas travel, air conditioning and heat in the winter, electricity to power their myriad consumer devices and appliances, and food of all types (especially meat products). An explosion of manufacturing and consumption erupted throughout the country which hasn’t abated (may be slowing a bit now due to the recession).

While Chinese Communism was abandoning Marxist economic principles (but keeping the dictatorship of the state, a core theme), India was abandoning its inward-focused socialism. In the 80’s India began some tentative reforms which also brought the economy to life, as Indians’ overseas were also known as prosperous businesspeople, like the overseas Chinese. Like the Chinese - the Indians wanted what Western consumers had - cosmetics, cars, clothes, air conditioning, power for appliances, more types of food, and all the rest. While their economy was still tied to a democracy (and thus couldn’t run over the rights of everyone in pursuit of development) they focused more on services and managed an incredible run of growth which led to Mumbai being one of the most expensive cities in the entire world to live in.

Don’t forget Brazil - Brazil also moved away from many socialist principles and the economy started to grow to keep up with its burgeoning population, who also want many of the comforts that we take for granted in the West.

China, India and Brazil represent a giant mass of humanity, the most populous countries in their respective continents, all of whom featured BILLIONS of consumers “voting with their feet” (through their actions, since they didn’t really leave) and showing that what they wanted wasn’t a simple, spartan zero-footprint life but in fact the cars, power, air conditioning, and higher end food (meats and not simple grains) that are bemoaned in the West.

IF ONLY - I tell the environmentalist - that you would have allied yourself with Socialism and Communism, two ideologies that made some of the most ambitious and entrepreneurial people in the world poor and impoverished - you would have been able to keep those countries “down”, with few cars (except for the elite) and a tiny infrastructure which is tied to limited consumption.

I remember when East Germany fell - and saw a brief interview with an East German intellectual - saying that he wished for a “third way”, other than the capitalism of the West when the wall fell - but that never happened.

Another opportunity lost for the environmentalist… after all barbed wire, guard towers, and shoot-to-kill orders are a small price to pay for the absence of cars and carbon, right?

A completely bankrupt ideology, which has been blasted to oblivion in the developed world. Their moment, like that of the East German intellectual - never comes when people are given a chance to live their lives fully.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Monday, March 23, 2009

Conversion Diary: Could I have stopped the war? - The diary of a former atheist

Conversion Diary: Could I have stopped the war? - The diary of a former atheist:
"'If you are what you should be,
you will set your whole world on fire.'
~ St. Catherine of Siena"


Dedication for Seven Storey Mountain
"I seek to speak to you, in some way, as your own self. Who can tell what this may mean? I myself do not know, but if you listen, things will be said that are perhaps not written in this book. And this will be due not to me but to the One who lives and speaks in both."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A couple weeks ago I was reading Seven Storey Mountain and came across a passage where Thomas Merton talks about the beginning of World War II, and says in passing:

If I had accepted the gift of sanctity that had been put in my hands when I stood by the [baptismal] font in November 1938, what might have happened in the world?

In the context of that section of the book, it's clear that he was basically asking, Could I have stopped the war? At first I hardly noticed it, thinking of it as a poetic hyperbole to drive home the point that we should all try to be holy. A few pages later, however, that sentence still nagged at me. I went back and re-read it, as well as the paragraph that followed:

People have no idea what one saint can do: for sanctity is stronger than the whole of hell. The saints are full of Christ in the plenitude of His Kingly and Divine power: and they are conscious of it, and give themselves to Him, that He may exercise His power through their smallest and seemingly most insignificant acts, for the salvation of the world.

Those thoughts have continued to nag at me over the past couple of weeks. When I see distressing stories on the news or think of the issues that most disturb me, an inconvenient thought keeps popping into mind: Could I have stopped this?

What I mean, of course, is not that there's any chance I could have done much at all through my own efforts; it's a shorthand way of saying, "If I had really died to myself, if I had fully stepped out of the way to let God's love and strength flow through me like a firehose instead of the feeble drip that the world sees now, what could he have done through me?"

Though it seems unlikely that God would use me to effect worldwide change on a major issue, it's certainly not impossible. Also, as Amy points out so well, one thing that is certain is that people who truly surrender their lives to God will have a huge impact on the world in some way or another, even if nobody ever knows their names.

Later in the book Merton describes a Russian Catholic woman who moved into the slums of Harlem to help the people there. After observing the amazing things that God had done through her, he writes:

It is a tremendous thing, the economy of the Holy Ghost! When the Spirit of God finds a soul in which He can work, He uses that soul for any number of purposes: opens out before its eyes a hundred new directions, multiplying its works and its opportunities for the apostolate almost beyond belief and certainly far beyond the ordinary strength of a human being.

So could I have prevented any of those horrible things I hear about on the news each night had I been a saint? The weight of my sins starts to feel awfully heavy when I realize that the answer is, "Maybe."

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Kitco Commentator's Corner

Kitco Commentator's Corner

Resurrection Of Economic Idiocy


Lyndon Johnson’s Un-Great Society and Roosevelt’s depression era social programs did not solve the problems they purported to address. Rather, they extended the pain and suffering of their programs’ victims and worst of all taught them to belly-up to the taxpayer trough forever. We are saddled with generations of uneducated losers, who have sunk their collective psyche into a myriad of social problems passed down repeatedly from indigent lazy parents who learned from their parents.

The latest version of this socialism-destruction designed and being implemented by the Obama team of adult children, will in our view multiply the current criminally inspired disaster, extending it for years.

Greenspan and those congressmen-bankers formed a union of free money to avoid a simple and normal recession in 2000. Now nine years later, its economic payback time for violation of standard economic principles that made our nation great. Unfolding tragedies will be legendary.

This Time It Really Is Different

The strength and foundation of the United States Constitution and Bill of Rights have served our nation well since 1776. Our current disasters, however, threaten the very existence of America.

The rule of law, which is the glue for domestic and global commerce, is being openly questioned. Our political leaders, in their frustration of dealing with their own instigated messes, threaten to abrogate legality of contract rules operating our country. This over-reaction is extremely dangerous.

When that pack of congressional hyenas were screaming at AIG’s leader yesterday they crossed the line into illegal, open warfare attacks on AIG’s derivative bonus babies. AIG’s new CEO-leader incidentally, basically volunteered to clean-up AIG’s problems and had nothing to do with these current challenges instigated and installed by Hank Greenberg who wisely got himself tossed-out in 2005. Greenberg made the mess not the current innocent CEO.

Test Values and Treatment for Vitamin D Deficiency - articles -

Test Values and Treatment for Vitamin D Deficiency - articles -: "Test Values and Treatment for Vitamin D Deficiency"

Thursday, March 19, 2009

DEBUNKING THE OBAMATOIDS � Count Us Out

DEBUNKING THE OBAMATOIDS � Count Us Out

3/19 Obama citizenship !!!

Cooking with the Sun | Energy Bulletin

Cooking with the Sun | Energy Bulletin: "Cooking with the Sun
by Carl Etnier

The sun is getting stronger every day, and I've started cooking with a solar oven again. Friday I cooked up a pot of potatoes in my oven from the Solar Oven Society. Yesterday it was a black bean stew--there wasn't quite enough heat from the day in the sun to cook the beans completely, but half an hour on low heat on the range finished their cooking. Today a pot of beets cooked in the sun."

CLICK

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Justified - “Just As If I’d Always Obeyed” � Already Not Yet

Justified - “Just As If I’d Always Obeyed” � Already Not Yet

“For He has made Him who knew no sin to become sin for us, that we might be made the righteousness of God in Him.” 2 Cor 5:21

Picture a moral ledger sheet with every word, thought, deed and motive of yours entered on that sheet. Most hope the good will outweigh the bad. The problem is that all of our deeds are stained, all are unclean and impure. There is no such thing as a positive ledger sheet - except in the case of Christ. His ledger sheet was perfect. So at the cross, our ledger sheet was charged to Christ, all our sin; and so His ledger sheet is credited to us.

“Justified” is not “Just as if I’d never sinned.” That is a great truth. But it is actually better than that: “Just as if I’d always obeyed.” God has credited the very righteousness of Jesus Christ to every believer.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Glenn Thrush's Blog: Ten happiest, saddest House districts - POLITICO.com

Glenn Thrush's Blog: Ten happiest, saddest House districts - POLITICO.com

March 14, 2009
Categories: Green

Ten happiest, saddest House districts

Gallup has set up a very cool site that breaks down data from its "well-being index" by congressional district -- and you can browse by map or in list form. So, I decided to take it out for a spin.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

The Oil Drum | Mexico: A Collapse Update

The Oil Drum | Mexico: A Collapse Update: "As the downside of nitrogen injection in the Cantarell field becomes apparent, it is difficult to see the nitrogen injection ramp up in he KMZ field having any medium or long range benefits to the Mexican economy. As Cantarell has fallen from 905 million barrels in 2004 to 430 million barrels in 2008, the decline in the next two years is very clear. Even Pemex has recently predicted 255.5 million barrels in 09. Propping up oil production with nitrogen injection leads to a cataclysmic decline in only a few years as the experience of the Cantarell field shows."

Friday, March 06, 2009

Gods of the Copybook Headings

Gods of the Copybook Headings: "A copybook was an exercise book used to practice one's handwriting in. The pages were blank except for horizontal rulings and a printed specimen of perfect handwriting at the top. You were supposed to copy this specimen all down the page. The specimens were often proverbs or other quotations from the bible, or brief admonitory sayings—the ones in the poem illustrate the kind of thing. These were the copybook headings."

With this as background, it is hard to disagree with the general opinion that "The Gods of the Copybook Headings" is a clinging to old-fashioned common sense by a man deeply in need of something to cling to. Certainly there is cause for us to feel the same way in these troubled times.
--------------------------------------------------

The Gods of the Copybook Headings
Rudyard Kipling-1919

As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.

We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.

We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place;
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.

With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.

When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "Stick to the Devil you know."

On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death."

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four—
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man—
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began:—
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will bum,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!

RealClearPolitics - Articles - Deception at Core of Obama Plans

RealClearPolitics - Articles - Deception at Core of Obama Plans Krauthamer

t the heart of Obama's radically transformative economic plan, a rhetorical sleight of hand so smoothly offered that few noticed.

The logic of Obama's address to Congress went like this:

"Our economy did not fall into decline overnight," he averred. Indeed, it all began before the housing crisis. What did we do wrong? We are paying for past sins in three principal areas: energy, health care, and education -- importing too much oil and not finding new sources of energy (as in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the Outer Continental Shelf?), not reforming health care, and tolerating too many bad schools.

The "day of reckoning" has now arrived. And because "it is only by understanding how we arrived at this moment that we'll be able to lift ourselves out of this predicament," Obama has come to redeem us with his far-seeing program of universal, heavily nationalized health care; a cap-and-trade tax on energy; and a major federalization of education with universal access to college as the goal.

Amazing. As an explanation of our current economic difficulties, this is total fantasy. As a cure for rapidly growing joblessness, a massive destruction of wealth, a deepening worldwide recession, this is perhaps the greatest non sequitur ever foisted upon the American people.

At the very center of our economic near-depression is a credit bubble, a housing collapse and a systemic failure of the entire banking system. One can come up with a host of causes: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pushed by Washington (and greed) into improvident loans, corrupted bond-ratings agencies, insufficient regulation of new and exotic debt instruments, the easy money policy of Alan Greenspan's Fed, irresponsible bankers pushing (and then unloading in packaged loan instruments) highly dubious mortgages, greedy house-flippers, deceitful homebuyers.

The list is long. But the list of causes of the collapse of the financial system

Never waste a good crisis, Clinton says on climate | Reuters

Never waste a good crisis, Clinton says on climate | Reuters: "Hillary Clinton told an audience on Friday 'never waste a good crisis,' as she highlighted the opportunity of rebuilding economies in a greener, less energy intensive model."

Michael Boskin Says Barack Obama Is Moving Us Toward a European-Style Social Welfare State and Long-Run Economic Stagnation - WSJ.com

Michael Boskin Says Barack Obama Is Moving Us Toward a European-Style Social Welfare State and Long-Run Economic Stagnation - WSJ.com

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

321energy :: Tumbling in the East :: Scott B. MacDonald

321energy :: Tumbling in the East :: Scott B. MacDonald

Tumbling in the East


by Scott B. MacDonald
KWR International
February 27th, 2009

The broad swath of land from the Baltic to the Black Sea and into the Russian heartland constitutes what is often called Emerging Europe. Over the last few weeks, this area caught the attention of the financial press due to rising concerns that the earlier build-up of external debt is beyond the region’s means of repayment -- a factor that could have a wider ripple effect into Western European banks and through them into those economies and the world at large.

Since the end of the Soviet Union in 1992 and the movement of most Eastern European countries into the European Union, a considerable amount of capital was pumped into the region. That process accelerated at the beginning of this decade as there was a race to converge between countries like Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia and Lithuania with their counterparts in the rest of Europe. Money flowed into these economies from both public and private sources. However, the private sector, led by Austrian, Italian, Greek and Swedish banks, led the way, investing capital in infrastructure, human capital, and housing. By 2008, Austrian banks had lent an estimated 70% of their country’s GDP in countries to the East, including Hungary, Ukraine and Russia. The problem is that the large spurt of growth, the race to economic convergence and the overall improvement in living standards came on borrowed money, reflected by sizeable current account imbalances throughout the region. Now with global export markets faltering and capital markets choking, Emerging Europe sits on an estimated $1.7 trillion in debt, including some $400 billion coming due this year.

The reduction in capital flows is something shared by most Emerging Markets, but it is the most pronounced in Eastern Europe. According to the Washington-based Institute of International Finance (IIF), private flows fell from a massive $392 billion in 2007 to $254.2 billion in 2008 and are projected to plunge to $30 billion this year. This is a massive shortfall for a region that has become addicted to cheap money and presents a number of dangers.

First and foremost, the drying up of cheap credit will be reflected by a more pronounced economic downturn in 2009. Last year, Ukraine, Hungary, Belarus, and Latvia went to the IMF for help (along with Iceland and Pakistan). This year, Ukraine, still struggling with the collapse of international steel prices, could end up going back to the IMF for a second time. Other potential candidates include Turkey, Lithuania, Romania and Bulgaria. Russia still has over $300 billion in foreign exchange reserves, but that buffer is falling and the country’s banks are increasingly turning to the state for assistance. Indeed, Russia is forecast to make net repayments of about $49 billion to commercial banks. As long as commodities are down – which many expect through 2009 and into 2010 – Russia will be challenged due its heavy dependence on natural gas and oil exports. The bottom line is that "Emerging Europe" has become "submerging Europe".

A second danger is to Europe’s banks. While U.S. banks have traditionally been major players in Latin America and Asia, Eastern Europe has been the domain of German, French, Italian, and other Western European banks. While German and French banks have been a little more prudent this round, that is not the case of their counterparts in Austria, Sweden (lending to the Baltics), Italy, Greece, and the Netherlands. A series of bank loan and bond defaults throughout Eastern Europe could have a strong negative impact on many struggling Western European banks, raising difficult questions for government authorities in Vienna, Stockholm, and Athens. And the reaction thus far from Western European capitals has been to stop the flow of credit, making matters worse, penalizinf good borrowers alongside bad.

The third danger is the impact of a major financial/economic crisis within the European Union. Can the EU withstand an even deeper economic crisis than the current one, complete with collapsing banking systems and sovereign defaults? This is a very significant question – would the Germans, French and Dutch be willing to bail out their fellow EU neighbors in Latvia, Hungary and Bulgaria? What kind of support can be given to Austria if its banks start to default?

The European Central Bank has limited powers and the decision for a massive, coordinated bailout would require something that has not yet occurred – a rapid, coherent decision-making process emerging from the EU’s headquarters in Brussels. This is not likely. As Ambrose Evans-Pritchard noted in The Telegraph on February 15, 2009, "Berlin is not going to rescue Ireland, Spain, Greece, and Portugal as the collapse of their credit bubbles leads to rising defaults, or rescue Italy by accepting plans for EU ‘union bonds’ should the debt markets take fright at the rocketing trajectory of Italy’s public debt (hitting 112% of GDP next year), just revised up from 101% - big change), or rescue Austria from its Habsburg adventurism." While many developed countries can survive large public sector debt burdens (like Japan, Italy and Belgium), the current environment makes the rapid absorption of a large amount of debt, which would have to be financed by bonds or loans, potentially more difficult than usual.

The global economy is in a precarious state. The most recent IMF economic forecast, updated at the end of January 2009, projects that world growth will fall to 0.5% this year, its lowest rate since World War II. According to the Fund: "Despite wide-ranging policy actions, financial strains remain acute, pulling down the real economy. A sustained economic recovery will not be possible until the financial sector’s functionality is restored and credit markets are unclogged." The IMF is already forecasting the Euro area’s real GDP will contract by 2% in 2009, with 0.2% growth in 2010. Our concern is that the ripples from a series of corporate and possibly sovereign defaults in the East roll into Western banks. This may initiate another round of upheaval that could tip over already strained credit systems – beyond what national governments can handle and what the EU is willing to deal with. This could set in motion more significant power shifts, with the Euro being a possible victim, parts of Eastern Europe falling into socio-economic turmoil -- with perhaps a slide in governments toward more authoritarian forms of rule -- and weakening the appeal of Western institutions and capitalism. If nothing else this is an old-fashioned crisis in capitalism and its impac

Thursday, February 26, 2009

The Wisdom of Crowds and Obamanomics

The Wisdom of Crowds and Obamanomics: "A 2007 study by Arnerich & Messina illustrated the stock market's efficiency in stark terms. Since 1994 there have been only two years in which more than 50% of professional money managers were able to beat the S&P 500 index. In 1997 only 11% of managers beat the index."

Eyc Eyc esp effect of Obama popularity and stock market

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

"The United States of America Does Not Torture"

"The United States of America Does Not Torture"

My concern with President Obama is his speeches seem to be written to sound profound while leaving out substance.

His plans to manage the deficit do not reflect anything like reality. He announces a plan to halve the deficit in the same year he increased it by $1 trillion dollars. His foreign policy so far is more notable in it's absence than in it's accomplishments. Given posturing and threats from North Korea, Sec State Clinton announced that she personally did not believe North Korea could enrich urianium (in apparent disagreement with virtually everyone else).

Russia is signing weapons supply agreements with Iran and expanding security arrangements and we say nary a word about it.
They also announced that they will build a naval base in Abkhazia, an province in another country which is in rebellion, and who's government is recognized by nobody.

Russia "in self defense" moves mobile missiles to the border of Poland after we deployed an ABM battery there. People do not understand the technology involved. An ABM has no offensive power. If you set off an ABM next to a T72 tank, it wold likely not disable the tank. If you set off a nuke on an Iskander missile, you would destroy an entire city. Our response? "well really we made no response. however we have announced that defence spending will be reduced...
To me, this feels like ... 1935... pacifist posturing, defense cuts, inward looking policies bordering on socialism, while potential opponents gain in strength and confidence.

Russians turn off the gas in Ukraine, Obama's response, silence. Russias message? to Ukraine, "none of your friends in the west will help you" to the West "we can turn off your heat whenever we want, remember this when you set your foreign policy".

In Iraq, Obama set a timetable to leave. I hope he is right. Bush handed him a victory in Iraq. It isn't too late for him to turn it into a defeat.

Pakistan's new government is showing itself to be weak and indecisive. I hope a stronger role in Afghanistan helps resolve this situation... I hope Obama can stay the course and that the military has decisive leadership on the battlefield.

And on Torture Michael, I have followed your articles for years. I think we need to define what torture is and work within that framework.

Michael thankyou for being a voice of reason that helps filter out the shrill political rhetoric.

Monday, February 23, 2009

Getting My Eat On - The Dax Files

Getting My Eat On - The Dax Files
southern favorite, Country Fried Steak with Milk Gravy and Garlic Mashed Potatoes.

Country Fried Steak
INGREDIENTS:
4 (4 ounce) cube steaks
1/2 teaspoon salt, divided
1 3/4 teaspoons ground black pepper, divided
1 cup all-purpose flour
2 eggs, lightly beaten
1/4 cup lard
1 cup milk
DIRECTIONS:
1. Season meat with 1/4 teaspoon of the salt and 1/4 teaspoon of the pepper; set aside. In a shallow dish, mix flour with 1 teaspoon of the pepper. Dredge each steak in flour. Dip in beaten egg, then dredge in flour again.
2. Heat lard in a large, heavy skillet over medium-high heat. Fry steaks 3 to 4 minutes on each side, or until golden brown. Drain on paper towels.
3. Pour off all but 2 tablespoons of the fat. Sprinkle 2 tablespoons of the dredging flour into oil. Cook over medium heat for 1 minute, scraping up any browned bits from the bottom of skillet. Gradually whisk in milk. Cook, stirring frequently, 3 to 4 minutes, or until thickened and bubbly. Add 1/4 teaspoon salt, and 1/4 to 1/2 teaspoons pepper; gravy should be quite peppery.

Garlic Mashed Potatoes
INGREDIENTS
• 5 pounds unpeeled red potatoes, quartered
• 13 ounces butter, room temperature
• 5 ounces Romano cheese, grated
• 1/4 cup and 2 teaspoons chopped garlic
• 2-1/2 teaspoons salt
• 2-1/2 teaspoons dried oregano
DIRECTIONS
1. Bring a large pot of salted water to a boil. Add potatoes and cook until tender but still firm, about 45 minutes; drain. Stir in butter, cheese, garlic, salt and oregano. Mash with a potato masher or with an electric mixer
Talk about putting the pounds on…Damn!

Acne | ArthurDeVany.com

Acne | ArthurDeVany.com

Acne

I have had several questions about acne lately. There is an easy answer: its the carbs. Not the good carbs in fruit and vegetables, but the bad, starchy, sugary carbs in bread, pizza, pasta, chocolate, rice, beans, potatoes, french fries, and sugar- or fructose-laden drinks. It is not the fat in your diet, though trans-fats are implicated. Milk may contribute to the problem.

Loren Cordain just released a book on acne. He has done the most impressive research on the subject. You can find his book at AcneCure. In the book he quotes a doctor who studied the problem with his many patients who concluded:

“The internal treatment of acne vulgaris must depend on the symptoms presented by each individual patient. . . As regards the diet, it is usually important to restrict the amount of carbohydrate and fat, and sweets, cakes, pastries, puddings, jam and marmalade, pig-fat, chocolate . . . Plenty of fresh fruits and green vegetables and lean meat, fish and poultry should be taken.”

Loren agrees with that assessment and adds,

“As you will see in later chapters most of this nearly 70 year old advice is right on target. However, 70 years later it can now be supported from clinical dietary trials that have shown how sugary foods and high glycemic load carbohydrates like those listed above can adversely influence the hormones that are directly involved in causing acne. The recommendation to eat fresh fruits, green vegetables, lean meat, fish and poultry now makes perfect sense with our
new understanding of how diet can influence the hormonal, cellular and molecular underpinnings of acne.”

The rest of his book backs that up and advises how to cure acne. You will also reduce your general level of inflammation and lose weight, almost all fat, on this diet. It is the diet I follow and recommend too.

confabulation

confabulation

CHILDS

interpretation of the bible

In the beginning, which occurred near the start, there was nothing but God, darkness, and some gas. The Bible says, ‘The Lord thy God is one, but I think He must be a lot older than that.

Anyway, God said, ‘Give me a light!’ and someone did.

Then God made the world..

He split the Adam and made Eve. Adam and Eve were naked, but they weren’t embarrassed because mirrors hadn’t been invented yet.

Adam and Eve disobeyed God by eating one bad apple, so they were driven from the Garden of Aden.

Not sure what they were driven in though, because they didn’t have cars.

Adam and Eve had a son, Cain, who hated his brother as long as he was Abel.

Pretty soon all of the early people died off, except for Methuselah, who lived to be like a million or something.

One of the next important people was Noah, who was a good guy, but one of his kids was kind of a Ham. Noah built a large boat and put his family and some animals on it. He asked some other people to join him, but they said they would have to take a rain check.

After Noah came Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob. Jacob was more famous than his brother, Esau, because Esau sold Jacob his birthmark in exchange for some pot roast. Jacob had a son named Joseph who wore a really loud sports coat.

Another important Bible guy is Moses, whose real name was Charlton Heston. Moses led the Israel Lights out of Egypt and away from the evil Pharaoh after God sent ten plagues on Pharaoh’s people. These plagues included frogs, mice, lice, bowels, english food and no cable.

God fed the Israel Lights every day with manicotti. Then he gave them His Top Ten Commandments.

These include: don’t lie, cheat, smoke, drink, dance, or covet your neighbor’s stuff.

Oh, yeah, I just thought of one more: Humor thy father and thy mother.

One of Moses’ best helpers was Joshua who was the first Bible guy to use spies. Joshua fought the battle of Geritol and the fence fell over on the town.

After Joshua came David.. He got to be king by killing a giant with a slingshot. He had a son named Solomon who had about 300 wives and 500 porcupines. My teacher says he was wise, but that doesn’t sound very wise to me.

After Solomon there were a bunch of major league prophets.

One of these was Jonah, who was swallowed by a big whale and then barfed up on the shore.

There were also some minor league prophets, but I guess we don’t have to worry about them.

After the Old Testament came the New Testament. Jesus is the star of The New. He was born in Bethlehem in a barn. (I wish I had been born in a barn too, because my mom is always saying to me, ‘Close the door! Were you born in a barn?’ It would be nice to say, ‘As a matter of fact, I was.’)

During His life, Jesus had many arguments with sinners like the Pharisees and the Democrats.

Jesus also had twelve opossums.

The worst one was Judas Asparagus. Judas was so evil that they named a terrible vegetable after him.

Jesus was a great man. He healed many leopards and even preached to some Germans on the Mount.

But the Democrats and all those guys put Jesus on trial before Pontius the Pilot. Pilot didn’t stick up for Jesus. He just washed his hands instead.

Anyways, Jesus died for our sins, then came back to life again.

He went up to Heaven but will be back at the end of the Aluminum.

His return is foretold in the book of Revolution.


Stolen without remorse from… The Children’s Bible in a Nutshell

Saturday, February 21, 2009

While Rome Burns | The Big Picture

While Rome Burns | The Big Picture

READ THIS:
et me make a few people upset. When someone comes to you and starts showing you charts that tell you to invest for the long run, look at their assumptions. Usually they are simplistic. And misleading. I agree that if the long run for you is 70 years, you can afford to ride out the ups and downs. But for those of us in the Baby Boomer world, the long term may be buying green bananas. If you start in a period of high valuations, you are NOT going to get 8-9-10% a year for the next 30 years;

Thursday, February 19, 2009

New service unmasks blocked telephone calls

New service unmasks blocked telephone calls: "A basic version of TrapCall is available for free.

Premium versions of the service can record mobile telephone calls, transcribe voice messages into text messages, and reveal names and addresses of callers along with their telephone numbers.

Premium versions are available for monthly fees of 10 dollars or 25 dollars."