Tuesday, March 10, 2009

The Oil Drum | Mexico: A Collapse Update

The Oil Drum | Mexico: A Collapse Update: "As the downside of nitrogen injection in the Cantarell field becomes apparent, it is difficult to see the nitrogen injection ramp up in he KMZ field having any medium or long range benefits to the Mexican economy. As Cantarell has fallen from 905 million barrels in 2004 to 430 million barrels in 2008, the decline in the next two years is very clear. Even Pemex has recently predicted 255.5 million barrels in 09. Propping up oil production with nitrogen injection leads to a cataclysmic decline in only a few years as the experience of the Cantarell field shows."

Friday, March 06, 2009

Gods of the Copybook Headings

Gods of the Copybook Headings: "A copybook was an exercise book used to practice one's handwriting in. The pages were blank except for horizontal rulings and a printed specimen of perfect handwriting at the top. You were supposed to copy this specimen all down the page. The specimens were often proverbs or other quotations from the bible, or brief admonitory sayings—the ones in the poem illustrate the kind of thing. These were the copybook headings."

With this as background, it is hard to disagree with the general opinion that "The Gods of the Copybook Headings" is a clinging to old-fashioned common sense by a man deeply in need of something to cling to. Certainly there is cause for us to feel the same way in these troubled times.
--------------------------------------------------

The Gods of the Copybook Headings
Rudyard Kipling-1919

As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.

We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.

We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place;
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.

With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.

When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "Stick to the Devil you know."

On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death."

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four—
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man—
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began:—
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will bum,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!

RealClearPolitics - Articles - Deception at Core of Obama Plans

RealClearPolitics - Articles - Deception at Core of Obama Plans Krauthamer

t the heart of Obama's radically transformative economic plan, a rhetorical sleight of hand so smoothly offered that few noticed.

The logic of Obama's address to Congress went like this:

"Our economy did not fall into decline overnight," he averred. Indeed, it all began before the housing crisis. What did we do wrong? We are paying for past sins in three principal areas: energy, health care, and education -- importing too much oil and not finding new sources of energy (as in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the Outer Continental Shelf?), not reforming health care, and tolerating too many bad schools.

The "day of reckoning" has now arrived. And because "it is only by understanding how we arrived at this moment that we'll be able to lift ourselves out of this predicament," Obama has come to redeem us with his far-seeing program of universal, heavily nationalized health care; a cap-and-trade tax on energy; and a major federalization of education with universal access to college as the goal.

Amazing. As an explanation of our current economic difficulties, this is total fantasy. As a cure for rapidly growing joblessness, a massive destruction of wealth, a deepening worldwide recession, this is perhaps the greatest non sequitur ever foisted upon the American people.

At the very center of our economic near-depression is a credit bubble, a housing collapse and a systemic failure of the entire banking system. One can come up with a host of causes: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pushed by Washington (and greed) into improvident loans, corrupted bond-ratings agencies, insufficient regulation of new and exotic debt instruments, the easy money policy of Alan Greenspan's Fed, irresponsible bankers pushing (and then unloading in packaged loan instruments) highly dubious mortgages, greedy house-flippers, deceitful homebuyers.

The list is long. But the list of causes of the collapse of the financial system

Never waste a good crisis, Clinton says on climate | Reuters

Never waste a good crisis, Clinton says on climate | Reuters: "Hillary Clinton told an audience on Friday 'never waste a good crisis,' as she highlighted the opportunity of rebuilding economies in a greener, less energy intensive model."

Michael Boskin Says Barack Obama Is Moving Us Toward a European-Style Social Welfare State and Long-Run Economic Stagnation - WSJ.com

Michael Boskin Says Barack Obama Is Moving Us Toward a European-Style Social Welfare State and Long-Run Economic Stagnation - WSJ.com

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

321energy :: Tumbling in the East :: Scott B. MacDonald

321energy :: Tumbling in the East :: Scott B. MacDonald

Tumbling in the East


by Scott B. MacDonald
KWR International
February 27th, 2009

The broad swath of land from the Baltic to the Black Sea and into the Russian heartland constitutes what is often called Emerging Europe. Over the last few weeks, this area caught the attention of the financial press due to rising concerns that the earlier build-up of external debt is beyond the region’s means of repayment -- a factor that could have a wider ripple effect into Western European banks and through them into those economies and the world at large.

Since the end of the Soviet Union in 1992 and the movement of most Eastern European countries into the European Union, a considerable amount of capital was pumped into the region. That process accelerated at the beginning of this decade as there was a race to converge between countries like Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia and Lithuania with their counterparts in the rest of Europe. Money flowed into these economies from both public and private sources. However, the private sector, led by Austrian, Italian, Greek and Swedish banks, led the way, investing capital in infrastructure, human capital, and housing. By 2008, Austrian banks had lent an estimated 70% of their country’s GDP in countries to the East, including Hungary, Ukraine and Russia. The problem is that the large spurt of growth, the race to economic convergence and the overall improvement in living standards came on borrowed money, reflected by sizeable current account imbalances throughout the region. Now with global export markets faltering and capital markets choking, Emerging Europe sits on an estimated $1.7 trillion in debt, including some $400 billion coming due this year.

The reduction in capital flows is something shared by most Emerging Markets, but it is the most pronounced in Eastern Europe. According to the Washington-based Institute of International Finance (IIF), private flows fell from a massive $392 billion in 2007 to $254.2 billion in 2008 and are projected to plunge to $30 billion this year. This is a massive shortfall for a region that has become addicted to cheap money and presents a number of dangers.

First and foremost, the drying up of cheap credit will be reflected by a more pronounced economic downturn in 2009. Last year, Ukraine, Hungary, Belarus, and Latvia went to the IMF for help (along with Iceland and Pakistan). This year, Ukraine, still struggling with the collapse of international steel prices, could end up going back to the IMF for a second time. Other potential candidates include Turkey, Lithuania, Romania and Bulgaria. Russia still has over $300 billion in foreign exchange reserves, but that buffer is falling and the country’s banks are increasingly turning to the state for assistance. Indeed, Russia is forecast to make net repayments of about $49 billion to commercial banks. As long as commodities are down – which many expect through 2009 and into 2010 – Russia will be challenged due its heavy dependence on natural gas and oil exports. The bottom line is that "Emerging Europe" has become "submerging Europe".

A second danger is to Europe’s banks. While U.S. banks have traditionally been major players in Latin America and Asia, Eastern Europe has been the domain of German, French, Italian, and other Western European banks. While German and French banks have been a little more prudent this round, that is not the case of their counterparts in Austria, Sweden (lending to the Baltics), Italy, Greece, and the Netherlands. A series of bank loan and bond defaults throughout Eastern Europe could have a strong negative impact on many struggling Western European banks, raising difficult questions for government authorities in Vienna, Stockholm, and Athens. And the reaction thus far from Western European capitals has been to stop the flow of credit, making matters worse, penalizinf good borrowers alongside bad.

The third danger is the impact of a major financial/economic crisis within the European Union. Can the EU withstand an even deeper economic crisis than the current one, complete with collapsing banking systems and sovereign defaults? This is a very significant question – would the Germans, French and Dutch be willing to bail out their fellow EU neighbors in Latvia, Hungary and Bulgaria? What kind of support can be given to Austria if its banks start to default?

The European Central Bank has limited powers and the decision for a massive, coordinated bailout would require something that has not yet occurred – a rapid, coherent decision-making process emerging from the EU’s headquarters in Brussels. This is not likely. As Ambrose Evans-Pritchard noted in The Telegraph on February 15, 2009, "Berlin is not going to rescue Ireland, Spain, Greece, and Portugal as the collapse of their credit bubbles leads to rising defaults, or rescue Italy by accepting plans for EU ‘union bonds’ should the debt markets take fright at the rocketing trajectory of Italy’s public debt (hitting 112% of GDP next year), just revised up from 101% - big change), or rescue Austria from its Habsburg adventurism." While many developed countries can survive large public sector debt burdens (like Japan, Italy and Belgium), the current environment makes the rapid absorption of a large amount of debt, which would have to be financed by bonds or loans, potentially more difficult than usual.

The global economy is in a precarious state. The most recent IMF economic forecast, updated at the end of January 2009, projects that world growth will fall to 0.5% this year, its lowest rate since World War II. According to the Fund: "Despite wide-ranging policy actions, financial strains remain acute, pulling down the real economy. A sustained economic recovery will not be possible until the financial sector’s functionality is restored and credit markets are unclogged." The IMF is already forecasting the Euro area’s real GDP will contract by 2% in 2009, with 0.2% growth in 2010. Our concern is that the ripples from a series of corporate and possibly sovereign defaults in the East roll into Western banks. This may initiate another round of upheaval that could tip over already strained credit systems – beyond what national governments can handle and what the EU is willing to deal with. This could set in motion more significant power shifts, with the Euro being a possible victim, parts of Eastern Europe falling into socio-economic turmoil -- with perhaps a slide in governments toward more authoritarian forms of rule -- and weakening the appeal of Western institutions and capitalism. If nothing else this is an old-fashioned crisis in capitalism and its impac

Thursday, February 26, 2009

The Wisdom of Crowds and Obamanomics

The Wisdom of Crowds and Obamanomics: "A 2007 study by Arnerich & Messina illustrated the stock market's efficiency in stark terms. Since 1994 there have been only two years in which more than 50% of professional money managers were able to beat the S&P 500 index. In 1997 only 11% of managers beat the index."

Eyc Eyc esp effect of Obama popularity and stock market

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

"The United States of America Does Not Torture"

"The United States of America Does Not Torture"

My concern with President Obama is his speeches seem to be written to sound profound while leaving out substance.

His plans to manage the deficit do not reflect anything like reality. He announces a plan to halve the deficit in the same year he increased it by $1 trillion dollars. His foreign policy so far is more notable in it's absence than in it's accomplishments. Given posturing and threats from North Korea, Sec State Clinton announced that she personally did not believe North Korea could enrich urianium (in apparent disagreement with virtually everyone else).

Russia is signing weapons supply agreements with Iran and expanding security arrangements and we say nary a word about it.
They also announced that they will build a naval base in Abkhazia, an province in another country which is in rebellion, and who's government is recognized by nobody.

Russia "in self defense" moves mobile missiles to the border of Poland after we deployed an ABM battery there. People do not understand the technology involved. An ABM has no offensive power. If you set off an ABM next to a T72 tank, it wold likely not disable the tank. If you set off a nuke on an Iskander missile, you would destroy an entire city. Our response? "well really we made no response. however we have announced that defence spending will be reduced...
To me, this feels like ... 1935... pacifist posturing, defense cuts, inward looking policies bordering on socialism, while potential opponents gain in strength and confidence.

Russians turn off the gas in Ukraine, Obama's response, silence. Russias message? to Ukraine, "none of your friends in the west will help you" to the West "we can turn off your heat whenever we want, remember this when you set your foreign policy".

In Iraq, Obama set a timetable to leave. I hope he is right. Bush handed him a victory in Iraq. It isn't too late for him to turn it into a defeat.

Pakistan's new government is showing itself to be weak and indecisive. I hope a stronger role in Afghanistan helps resolve this situation... I hope Obama can stay the course and that the military has decisive leadership on the battlefield.

And on Torture Michael, I have followed your articles for years. I think we need to define what torture is and work within that framework.

Michael thankyou for being a voice of reason that helps filter out the shrill political rhetoric.

Monday, February 23, 2009

Getting My Eat On - The Dax Files

Getting My Eat On - The Dax Files
southern favorite, Country Fried Steak with Milk Gravy and Garlic Mashed Potatoes.

Country Fried Steak
INGREDIENTS:
4 (4 ounce) cube steaks
1/2 teaspoon salt, divided
1 3/4 teaspoons ground black pepper, divided
1 cup all-purpose flour
2 eggs, lightly beaten
1/4 cup lard
1 cup milk
DIRECTIONS:
1. Season meat with 1/4 teaspoon of the salt and 1/4 teaspoon of the pepper; set aside. In a shallow dish, mix flour with 1 teaspoon of the pepper. Dredge each steak in flour. Dip in beaten egg, then dredge in flour again.
2. Heat lard in a large, heavy skillet over medium-high heat. Fry steaks 3 to 4 minutes on each side, or until golden brown. Drain on paper towels.
3. Pour off all but 2 tablespoons of the fat. Sprinkle 2 tablespoons of the dredging flour into oil. Cook over medium heat for 1 minute, scraping up any browned bits from the bottom of skillet. Gradually whisk in milk. Cook, stirring frequently, 3 to 4 minutes, or until thickened and bubbly. Add 1/4 teaspoon salt, and 1/4 to 1/2 teaspoons pepper; gravy should be quite peppery.

Garlic Mashed Potatoes
INGREDIENTS
• 5 pounds unpeeled red potatoes, quartered
• 13 ounces butter, room temperature
• 5 ounces Romano cheese, grated
• 1/4 cup and 2 teaspoons chopped garlic
• 2-1/2 teaspoons salt
• 2-1/2 teaspoons dried oregano
DIRECTIONS
1. Bring a large pot of salted water to a boil. Add potatoes and cook until tender but still firm, about 45 minutes; drain. Stir in butter, cheese, garlic, salt and oregano. Mash with a potato masher or with an electric mixer
Talk about putting the pounds on…Damn!

Acne | ArthurDeVany.com

Acne | ArthurDeVany.com

Acne

I have had several questions about acne lately. There is an easy answer: its the carbs. Not the good carbs in fruit and vegetables, but the bad, starchy, sugary carbs in bread, pizza, pasta, chocolate, rice, beans, potatoes, french fries, and sugar- or fructose-laden drinks. It is not the fat in your diet, though trans-fats are implicated. Milk may contribute to the problem.

Loren Cordain just released a book on acne. He has done the most impressive research on the subject. You can find his book at AcneCure. In the book he quotes a doctor who studied the problem with his many patients who concluded:

“The internal treatment of acne vulgaris must depend on the symptoms presented by each individual patient. . . As regards the diet, it is usually important to restrict the amount of carbohydrate and fat, and sweets, cakes, pastries, puddings, jam and marmalade, pig-fat, chocolate . . . Plenty of fresh fruits and green vegetables and lean meat, fish and poultry should be taken.”

Loren agrees with that assessment and adds,

“As you will see in later chapters most of this nearly 70 year old advice is right on target. However, 70 years later it can now be supported from clinical dietary trials that have shown how sugary foods and high glycemic load carbohydrates like those listed above can adversely influence the hormones that are directly involved in causing acne. The recommendation to eat fresh fruits, green vegetables, lean meat, fish and poultry now makes perfect sense with our
new understanding of how diet can influence the hormonal, cellular and molecular underpinnings of acne.”

The rest of his book backs that up and advises how to cure acne. You will also reduce your general level of inflammation and lose weight, almost all fat, on this diet. It is the diet I follow and recommend too.

confabulation

confabulation

CHILDS

interpretation of the bible

In the beginning, which occurred near the start, there was nothing but God, darkness, and some gas. The Bible says, ‘The Lord thy God is one, but I think He must be a lot older than that.

Anyway, God said, ‘Give me a light!’ and someone did.

Then God made the world..

He split the Adam and made Eve. Adam and Eve were naked, but they weren’t embarrassed because mirrors hadn’t been invented yet.

Adam and Eve disobeyed God by eating one bad apple, so they were driven from the Garden of Aden.

Not sure what they were driven in though, because they didn’t have cars.

Adam and Eve had a son, Cain, who hated his brother as long as he was Abel.

Pretty soon all of the early people died off, except for Methuselah, who lived to be like a million or something.

One of the next important people was Noah, who was a good guy, but one of his kids was kind of a Ham. Noah built a large boat and put his family and some animals on it. He asked some other people to join him, but they said they would have to take a rain check.

After Noah came Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob. Jacob was more famous than his brother, Esau, because Esau sold Jacob his birthmark in exchange for some pot roast. Jacob had a son named Joseph who wore a really loud sports coat.

Another important Bible guy is Moses, whose real name was Charlton Heston. Moses led the Israel Lights out of Egypt and away from the evil Pharaoh after God sent ten plagues on Pharaoh’s people. These plagues included frogs, mice, lice, bowels, english food and no cable.

God fed the Israel Lights every day with manicotti. Then he gave them His Top Ten Commandments.

These include: don’t lie, cheat, smoke, drink, dance, or covet your neighbor’s stuff.

Oh, yeah, I just thought of one more: Humor thy father and thy mother.

One of Moses’ best helpers was Joshua who was the first Bible guy to use spies. Joshua fought the battle of Geritol and the fence fell over on the town.

After Joshua came David.. He got to be king by killing a giant with a slingshot. He had a son named Solomon who had about 300 wives and 500 porcupines. My teacher says he was wise, but that doesn’t sound very wise to me.

After Solomon there were a bunch of major league prophets.

One of these was Jonah, who was swallowed by a big whale and then barfed up on the shore.

There were also some minor league prophets, but I guess we don’t have to worry about them.

After the Old Testament came the New Testament. Jesus is the star of The New. He was born in Bethlehem in a barn. (I wish I had been born in a barn too, because my mom is always saying to me, ‘Close the door! Were you born in a barn?’ It would be nice to say, ‘As a matter of fact, I was.’)

During His life, Jesus had many arguments with sinners like the Pharisees and the Democrats.

Jesus also had twelve opossums.

The worst one was Judas Asparagus. Judas was so evil that they named a terrible vegetable after him.

Jesus was a great man. He healed many leopards and even preached to some Germans on the Mount.

But the Democrats and all those guys put Jesus on trial before Pontius the Pilot. Pilot didn’t stick up for Jesus. He just washed his hands instead.

Anyways, Jesus died for our sins, then came back to life again.

He went up to Heaven but will be back at the end of the Aluminum.

His return is foretold in the book of Revolution.


Stolen without remorse from… The Children’s Bible in a Nutshell

Saturday, February 21, 2009

While Rome Burns | The Big Picture

While Rome Burns | The Big Picture

READ THIS:
et me make a few people upset. When someone comes to you and starts showing you charts that tell you to invest for the long run, look at their assumptions. Usually they are simplistic. And misleading. I agree that if the long run for you is 70 years, you can afford to ride out the ups and downs. But for those of us in the Baby Boomer world, the long term may be buying green bananas. If you start in a period of high valuations, you are NOT going to get 8-9-10% a year for the next 30 years;

Thursday, February 19, 2009

New service unmasks blocked telephone calls

New service unmasks blocked telephone calls: "A basic version of TrapCall is available for free.

Premium versions of the service can record mobile telephone calls, transcribe voice messages into text messages, and reveal names and addresses of callers along with their telephone numbers.

Premium versions are available for monthly fees of 10 dollars or 25 dollars."

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Bad Example

Bad Example Jokes

LITTLE RALPHY ON MATH

A teacher asks her class, 'If there are 5 birds sitting on a fence and you shoot one of them, how many will be left?'

She calls on little Ralphy.

He replies, 'None, they will all fly away with the first gunshot.'

The teacher replies, 'The correct answer is 4, but I like your thinking.'

Then little Ralphy says, 'I have a question for YOU. There are 3 women sitting on a bench having ice cream:

One is delicately licking the sides of the triple scoop of ice cream. The second is gobbling down the top and sucking the cone. The third is biting off the top of the ice cream. Which one is married?'

The teacher, blushing a great deal, replied, 'Well, I suppose the one that's gobbled down the top and sucked the cone.'

To which Little Ralphy replied, 'The correct answer is 'the one with the wedding ring on,' but I like your thinking.'


LITTLE RALPHY ON MATH

Little Ralphy returns from school and says he got an F in arithmetic.

'Why?' asks the father?

'The teacher asked 'How much is 2x3,'' I said '6', replies Ralphy.

'But that's right!' says his dad.

'Yeah, but then she asked me 'How much is 3x2?''

'What's the f*cking difference?' asks the father.

'That's what I said!'


LITTLE RALPHY ON ENGLISH

Little Ralphy goes to school, and the teacher says, 'Today we are going to learn multi-syllable words, class. Does anybody have an example of a multi-syllable word?'

Ralphy says 'Mas-tur-bate.'

Miss Rogers smiles and says, 'Wow, little Ralphy, that's a mouthful.'

Little Ralphy says, 'No, Miss Rogers, you're thinking of a blowjob.'


LITTLE RALPHY ON GRAMMAR

Little Ralphy was sitting in class one day. All of a sudden, he needed to go to the toilet. He yelled out, 'Miss Jones, I need to take a piss!'

The teacher replied, 'Now, Ralphy, that is NOT the proper word to use in this situation. The correct word you want to use is 'urinate.' Please use the word 'ur-i-nate' in a sentence correctly, and I will allow you to go.'

Little Ralphy, thinks for a bit, and then says, 'You're an eight, but if you had bigger tits, you'd be a TEN!'


LITTLE RALPHY ON GRAMMAR

One day, during lessons on proper grammar, the teacher asked for a show of hands from those who could use the word 'beautiful' in the same sentence twice.

First, she called on little Suzie, who responded with, 'My father bought my mother a beautiful dress and she looked beautiful in it.'

'Very good, Suzie,' replied the teacher. She then called on little Michael.

'My mommy planned a beautiful banquet and it turned out beautifully.'

She said, 'Excellent, Michael!' Then the teacher reluctantly called on little Ralphy.

'Last night at the dinner table, my sister told my father that she was pregnant, and he said 'Beautiful, just f*cking beautiful!''

[Yeah, Michael f*cked up his answer, but he's an ass-kisser, so teacher gave him a pass]

LITTLE RALPHY ON GETTING OLDER

Little Ralphy was sitting on a park bench munching on one candy bar after another. After the 6th one a man on the bench across from him said, 'Son, you know eating all that candy isn't good for you. It will give you acne, rot your teeth, and make you fat.'

Little Ralphy replied, 'My grandfather lived to be 107 years old.'

The man asked, 'Did your grandfather eat 6 candy bars at a time?'

Little Ralphy answered, 'No, he minded his own f*cking business.