Sunday, May 30, 2010

Procrastination hack: '(10 2)*5' | 43 Folders

Procrastination hack: '(10 2)*5' | 43 Folders

Procrastination hack: '(10+2)*5'

Following on the idea of the procrastination dash and Jeff’s progressive dash, I’ve been experimenting with a squirelly new system to pound through my procrastinated to-do list. Brace yourself, because it is a bit more byzantine than is Merlin 2005’s newly stripped-down habit. It’s called (10+2)*5, and today it will save your ass.

Who it’s for

(10+2)*5

  • procrastinators
  • the easily distracted
  • compulsive web-surfers
  • people with a long list of very short tasks (a/k/a “mosquitos”)
  • people having trouble chipping away at very large tasks

What you’ll need

  1. a timer
    • must be easy to reset
    • electronic kitchen timer is particularly good (pref. with multiple alarm memories), or
    • an app like Minuteur (get the newest version—several cool new features)
  2. a reduced subset of your to-do list
    • tasks that can be worked on (not necessarily completed) in blocks of 10 minutes or less
    • GTD people: next actions only, please
  3. an hour of your time (less is potentially okay, but it’s non-canonical)
  4. your sorry, procrastinating ass

How it works

It’s called “(10+2)*5” and here’s why:

  • 10 - Work for ten minutes with single-minded focus on moving toward completion on a single task. Ten minutes, and that’s all you’re allowed to do is work, work, work. No cheating, because (DING!) you actually get a break when you’re done…
  • 2 - After ten minutes of sweaty, dedicated work you get a 2-minute break to do whatever you want—drink coffee, read 5ives, call your bookie, whatever. When the two minutes are up, it’s back to work on the next task on your list. This is important.
  • *5 - You’re going to iterate this four more times for a total of one hour’s working/breaking

Important squirrely rules

  • You do not need to finish your task or your project in ten minutes; you just need to move it forward
  • If you finish a satisfying amount of work in fewer than ten minutes, STOP, and go right to your 2-minute break, than start another 10-minute dash
  • Do NOT skip breaks! You are not allowed. Breaks cannot be missed. Period. Go surf the web. Now. Seriously. GO!

What will happen

You’ll blaze through an hour’s worth of work/not work and will find yourself looking forward to both the breaking and working parts of the cycle. (Dang, how’s that for a change?)

The MacGuffin

The Now Habit
by Neil Fiore

Okay, you caught me. That’s the hack: you can and eventually will skip breaks.

In his (extremely wonderful) The Now Habit, Neil Fiore suggests a similar habit of “unscheduling,” where you only make obligations to the things that you enjoy and that are not the source of procrastination. John Perry suggests “Structured Procrastination,” where you only give high priority to “unimportant” tasks. Of course, this is taken to a hilarious extreme with Joshua Newman’s plan for scheduling just a few minutes of work per hour, and then focusing on the “more important” tasks like DVD re-arranging.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

sad truth we need oil drillers "more than they need us" james altucher says: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

sad truth we need oil drillers "more than they need us" james altucher says: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

The Oil Drum | Drumbeat: May 27, 2010

The Oil Drum | Drumbeat: May 27, 2010

"BP sets stage for Disaster"

No oil and gas well ever drilled has gone exactly to plan, or without mistakes being made. The Upstream Industry has learned the hard way. The path to todays drilling (well construction) approach is littered with terible loss events, and awash with lessons. But the fact is that todays drilling approach allows for mistakes to be made, simply because wells do not always behave as planned, and the execution of each step of the well construction plan relies on people. Contingency measure after contingency measure is layered over the average well construction plan such that if one, two, three, or even more consecutive issues occur and stack up against the well construction team there remains the cability on hand to identify there is a problem, to secure the well, and to plan and effect an appropriate remedial plan.

Yes a number of issues were stacking up against the well contruction team on Mississippi Canyon 252 #1-01 well on the night of the tradgey. Issues such as a communication path between the reservoir (oil and gas) and the well bore, the choice of casing plan and related well barriers, etc. However up until around 21:45 there remained the cability on hand to identify there was a problem, to secure the well, and to plan and effect an appropriate remedial plan to deal with the issues that had stacked up.

Unfortunately, at around 21:47 the Annular BOP opened releasing the immense energy that had accumulated beneath it (gas), energy that on release evacuated (ejected) the drilling riser of fluids in seconds. Thousands of gallons of fluids entering the workspace (drill floor) at almost jet force would have made any subsequent action to try to regain control of the well very difficult.

Much has been made about the issues that stacked up against the well construction team on that night, the cement program, the cement quality, the casing program, the testing program, etc etc, however the point remains that until around 21:45 the team still had the ability on hand to identify there was a problem, to secure the well, and to plan and effect an appropriate remedial plan to deal with the issues that had stacked up. The BOP Annular was closed and was capable of containing pressure build up as a result of the leak path between the reservoir and the well bore. There were other BOP Ram Preventers available of high pressure rating than the BOP Annular Preventer to call upon if required. With this contingency at hand (the last layer of contingency in any well construction plan), why did it still go so wrong?

I would offer that the real question is why did the BOP annular open? Did it fail? Was it opened by mistake? Was it opened thinking there was no hazardous gas build up below it? The investigation team will undoubtedly determine the truth.

I can also offer that in the Drilling Industry the Driller (the man that operates the drilling machine integrated into the rig structure) has two Golden Rules when it comes to well control:
#1, if there is any doubt whatsoever about a possible influx of formation fluid into the well bore then the well must be shut in (close the BOP), he requires approval from no-man for this action
#2, if the BOP has been closed for whatever well activity the Driller must be assured that doing so will not result in a hazardous situation for him, his team and all with him at the worksite. He requires approval from the worksite supervisors for this action.

The mud logger charts (main drilling parameter record) for the period 20:00hrs through 21:50hrs as presented at the Senate hearing show clear indicators of a problem with the well. There was more flow coming back from the well than going in, there was additional pressure where there should not have been. Evaluation and interpretation of these charts is an essential part fo providing the Driller the assurance he needs that opening the BOP Annular will not result in a hazardous situation.

If the BOP Annular was opened by the well construction team the other question undoubtedly being asked by the investigation team is whether suitable and sufficient evaluation and interpretation of the drilling parameter records was undertaken prior to authorising the opening of the BOP Annular?

The time line on the mud logger chart suggests around 15 minutes (from 21:30hrs to around 21:45hrs) may have been available for the well construction team to evaluate and interpret why there was pressure under the BOP Annular when there shouldnt have been.

15 minutes is not a long time to consider this kind of situation. Given that there had been a number of issues going on with this well since the casing was run and cemented (a lot of red flags were flying) there should have been the highest degree of awareness on every subsequent step of the operation. This means the full attention of all supervisors at all times. So, assuming again that the BOP Annular was opened by the team, why was there only a few minutes spent deciding the next step when the biggest red flag of them all (pressure under the BOP Annular) was waving.

Thanks for reading.

Blowout

Saturday, May 22, 2010

oil-halliburton-cement-052010jpg-e618a2271a66c847.jpg (JPEG Image, 570x1024 pixels)

oil-halliburton-cement-052010jpg-e618a2271a66c847.jpg (JPEG Image, 570x1024 pixels)

Well bore sketch possible entry thought blowout Horizon

Obama's An Idiot

Obama's An Idiot

Joke

More Truth Than Bullshit

Barack Obama met with the Queen of England.

He asked her, "Your Majesty, how do you run such an efficient government? Are there any tips you can give to me?"

"Well," said the Queen, "the most important thing is to surround yourself with intelligent people."

Obama frowned, and then asked, "But how do I know the people around me are really intelligent?"

The Queen took a sip of tea. "Oh, that's easy; you just ask them to answer an intelligent riddle." The Queen pushed a button on her intercom. "Please send Tony Blair in here, would you?"

Tony Blair walked into the room and said, "Yes, my Queen?"

The Queen smiled and said, "Answer me this please, Tony, your mother and father have a child. It is not your brother and it is not your sister. Who is it?"

Without pausing for a moment, Tony Blair answered, "That would be me."

"Yes! Very good," said the Queen.

Obama went back home to ask Joe Biden, his vice presidential choice the same question. "Joe, answer this for me. Your mother and your father have a child.
It's not your brother and it's not your sister. Who is it?"

"I'm not sure," said Biden. "Let me get back to you on that one.." He went to his advisors and asked every one, but none could give him an answer. Finally, he ended up in the men's room and recognized Colin Powell's shoes in the next stall.

Biden asked Powell, "Colin, can you answer this for me? Your mother and father have a child and it's not your brother or your sister. Who is it?"

Colin Powell yelled back, "That's easy, it's me!"

Biden smiled, and said, "Thanks!" Then, he went back to speak with Obama. "Say, I did some research and I have the answer to that riddle. It is Colin Powell!"

Obama got up, stomped over to Biden, and angrily yelled into his face, "No! You idiot! It's Tony Blair!"

AND THAT MY FRIENDS IS WHAT'S WRONG WITH OUR GOVERNMENT.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Possible non-OPEC oil supply surge to put pressure on prices?

Possible non-OPEC oil supply surge to put pressure on prices?

To be sure, data points from only two years shouldn’t make us rush to believe that world oil is undergoing a shale gas type surge in productive capacity. In fact, it’s not. Analysis strongly suggests that the production surge in 2009 and 2010 will not repeat; in other words, non-OPEC oil output is not expected to grow in 2011 and the foreseeable future. So, against a backdrop of resurgent demand from emerging economies that means that a bias to higher oil prices over the next 12 to 24 months remains (notwithstanding another economic meltdown).

Yet those in the oil business shouldn’t be too complacent in recognizing the significance of the mini-tsunami of non-OPEC oil that hit the markets in 2009, at the same time as the financial crisis washed out the demand side. In fact, it was OPEC that took excess barrels off the market, sacrificing market share, which is why the cartel’s collective spare productive capacity tripled in the past two years, going from 2.0 MMB/d to 6.0 MMB/d.

Looking back five years ago, the opening words to my book, A Thousand Barrels a Second, were, “We are not running out of oil. We are running out of cheap oil.” Implicit in these words were that price of this vital commodity had to rise up from the then $30.00/B, because of looming scarcity in the face of rising demand.


Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Possible+OPEC+supply+surge+pressure+prices/3037511/story.html#ixzz0oIedA3fc

Friday, May 14, 2010

The Oil Drum | Crystals, the Gulf of Mexico Blowout, and the new 'Top Hat' Dome

The Oil Drum | Crystals, the Gulf of Mexico Blowout, and the new 'Top Hat' Dome

hydrates and scale

The Oil Drum | Is 70,000 barrels a day a possibility for the oil spill?

The Oil Drum | Is 70,000 barrels a day a possibility for the oil spill?

I still haven't seen it.

The seal assembly in the wellhead was tested to 10,000.

Prior to displacing the riser, a positive pressure test held.

The negative pressure test showed 1,400 psi on the drillpipe and 0 psi on the choke and kill lines. If the drillpipe contained seawater and the choke and kill lines contained mud prior to displacing the riser than this is exactly what the pressure should read.

In the last 120 seconds something let go and the standpipe pressure went from 1,500 psi to 5,800 psi. I can't imagine what the men on the rig floor were going through then.

FF

Monday, May 03, 2010

The Oil Drum | Tech Talk: Progress on the Gulf oil leak and comments on cementing pipes and well completion

The Oil Drum | Tech Talk: Progress on the Gulf oil leak and comments on cementing pipes and well completion
Permalink | Subthread  | Comments  top

Kheris, great find, thanks for digging this up and posting the link.

It's an eyewitness account from two guys out tuna fishing right below the Deepwater Horizon on the night of April 20th. One of the guys had worked offshore, and from the story, that experience probably saved his life, as he knew what the "kick" they were watching meant, and yelled for his buddy to get their boat away from their fishing spot by the platform ASAP, which they did.

I've excerpted the following verbatim, with spelling/grammar errors as is, from this account that Kheris linked to above.

ROCKMAN; as I read through the story that these two tell, it sure sounds like the unconfirmed report you heard and which you posted around 12:30 pm today, which is that someone on the platform missed seeing the well kicking back at them until the ship reported the disconnect between the tanks full of mud vs. the amount of mud that should have been pumped, is a very plausible explanation. And, when someone up top did recognize the kick, it was too late. Methane was already venting (the eyewitness account of the decibel level is scary), and when power was cut the backup system started up but sparked, and that caused the initial explosion.

Their observations are VERY interesting, and if these two eyewitnesses are right, it was the start-up of the backup electrical power system that caused the initial explosion:

Around 10pm the entire center of the rig started rushing water downwards over all the pipes... I've never seen such an event take place. I looked at my friend who previously worked offshore, and he said that's BOP something another and the rig took a 'kick!' I thought the rig was sinking and that was their way of bilging... But nope! Methane gas began BLOWING out of the West side of it and the noise of the thrust was louder than anything I've ever herd (except for a sonic boom I herd once, and what I'm about to tell you next) My eyes began to burn and that friend I was telling you about earlier began to SCREAM, "GO, GO, GO, GO, GOOOOO!" I positioned my compass North and put the gears in WOT! At approximately 100 yds from the rig it Exploded! Puts a new meaning to explosion.

The rig continued EXPLODING. A very large crew boat was tied to the rig as it blew and the ppl began rafting to that boat as it floated away slowly. I got on the radio to try to help and they told me to stay away for safety. The rig blew a few more explosions after that and began to burn down. Some of the rig began dripping into the water and the platform tilted in and turned RED HOT.

When the gas started blowing out the side of the rig they turned off the power to prevent electrical spark which would ignite the gas, but when they shut power the generator kicked on and thats all she wrote!

The Oil Drum | Tech Talk: Progress on the Gulf oil leak and comments on cementing pipes and well completion

The Oil Drum | Tech Talk: Progress on the Gulf oil leak and comments on cementing pipes and well completion

I DO NOT HAVE CONFIRMATION OF WHAT I’M ABOUT TO SAY!!!!

Did everyone hear that? Maybe true…maybe just BS. But just heard a story re: the displacement of the drilling mud with sea water from the riser. The mud was being pumped into a boat at the rig. Normal procedure. But at one point the boat captain notified the rig his tanks were almost full. But that didn’t match the volume of mud that could have been pumped in the time span.

What this might mean: when you’re drilling and you stop to add a new section of drill pipe you monitor the return mud tank. When you stop your mud pumps, the flow of mud from the well bore should also stop. If it doesn’t then something down hole must be pushing the mud up and out… oil/NG/water or any combination. That’s why you do a “flow check”. To make sure the hole is static. Pure speculation on my part based upon the unconfirmed report of excessive mud pumped to the boat: the well started coming in and no one was monitoring the flow back. There are also electronic monitors to watch for this but they don’t work very well (or at all) during such an offloading op.

But if true this goes a long way toward explaining why the accident happened so fast. As others have mentioned there are procedures to kill a kick or an actual well flow. But those actions are only taken when you know they well is coming at you. As we say in the oil patch: “When you see it coming at you through the kelly (the drill floor) you’re probably already dead.”

Sunday, May 02, 2010

t r u t h o u t | Whistleblower: BP Risks More Massive Catastrophes in Gulf

t r u t h o u t | Whistleblower: BP Risks More Massive Catastrophes in Gulf

SkyTruth

SkyTruth

Blowout schematic

http://blog.skytruth.org/2010/04/gulf-oil-spill-6-million-gallons-per.html

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5uXD33cirtb6a1IhRYReMoFNz898vAIWEGpnWtCe52yvDEw8Lu-SzQdkq6f4UgbKDfhKQlpySZ8gno13eV-ICL5Xjd0O9shoh4_D3ARQhtZrdQGFspuDPMfTd-O34wHkXi2yCGw/s1600/oilslickundergraphicjpg-57e28ddd55b0847f.jpg