Brutally Honest

Brutally Honest

Marriage
And I think a good starting place for us is a paragraph from the ‘Book of Alternative Services of the Anglican Church of Canada’ that I read at the beginning of every wedding service:

Marriage is a gift of God and a means of his grace, in which man and woman become one flesh. It is God’s purpose that, as husband and wife give themselves to each other in love, they shall grow together and be united in that love, as Christ is united with his Church.

‘Marriage is…a means of God’s grace’. The phrase ‘means of grace’ is used in the Christian tradition to describe ways in which God channels his love and strength to us. So we talk about Bible reading and prayer, coming to worship and receiving Holy Communion, as ‘means’ of grace’. The paragraph is telling us that in the Christian understanding, marriage is also a way in which God channels his love and strength to us.

Let me try to unpack this. It’s as if God in his infinite love and kindness looks at one of the human beings he has created, and says to himself, “What can I do for her to help her experience my unconditional love and strength, day in and day out, for the rest of her life?” And then God has a brainwave and says, “I know what I’ll do! I’ve got just the guy for her! As he loves her in a gentle and faithful and unconditional way, she’ll experience not only his love, but my love as well”. And then God looks at the man she loves, and says to himself, “Hey, this is a really good idea, because it’ll work the other way around as well! As they each love the other in a gentle and faithful and unconditional way, they’ll both experience my love through one another”.

This is a beautiful thing, and I hope couples can see how significant this makes their marriage and their love. It’s wonderful enough that they’ve found each other and that they have been able to care for each other and love each other in a special way. But this view takes their love even higher than that, because each of them has been given the sacred calling of being a channel of God’s love to the other.

However, there’s a problem here, and it’s to do with the definition of the word ‘love’. We live in a culture in which ‘love’ is mainly an emotional word; ‘falling in love’ is not seen as a choice you make, but as something that happens to you. you’re the helpless victim of it, and if it chooses to leave you, there’s nothing you can do about it; best leave your partner and find someone else.

But in the Bible love is not a feeling but a choice and a way of life. To love someone, in the Bible, means to choose to be a blessing to them by caring for them and helping them in practical ways, whether you feel like it or not. And that’s why we can ask couples to make promises to each other. It’s pretty hard to make promises about feelings; feelings come and go, depending on all sorts of factors. But actions? Yes, we can make promises about them.

But we can get even more clarification than this. If we accept the idea that Christians are called in their marriages to act out the love of God toward their marriage partner, we can go further and ask, “Well, what’s God’s love like?”

God’s love is unconditional. It doesn’t depend on whether or not we’re good enough. We mess up every day, but God doesn’t give up on us in disgust; he forgives us and helps us get up and try again. He is infinitely patient and kind toward us. And thank God for that!

We all experience this in our marriages, if we’re honest. How many of us have asked ourselves from time to time, “Given the sort of person I can be when I’m not at my best, why on earth does she stick with me?” I’ve certainly asked that question, knowing how hurtful I can be when I’m doing my best grizzly bear imitation!

God’s unconditional love calls us as husbands and wives to accept the fact that just as we are not perfect, so our partners are not perfect either. Just as they forgive us, so we forgive them too. In another place Paul says, ‘Do not let the sun go down on your anger’ (Ephesians 4:26); in other words, be quick to apologise, quick to forgive, and quick to be reconciled. That’s what God’s love is like; we’re called to ask him to help us imitate his love.

Connected to this is the idea that God’s love is faithful. To be blunt, this means that God does not give up on us, or leave us when he sees a more attractive and deserving subject of his love around the next corner. God has pledged himself to us and he will be faithful to us throughout our lives and through all eternity as well.

So we’re called to live that out to one another as married couples, to be faithful to one another until death parts us. And here I want to declare war on a phrase that I hear so often: the phrase, “If it doesn’t work out”. I’ve been married for nearly twenty-eight years, and I have to say that I always knew that it was up to me to make it work out. I’m not a helpless victim of circumstances; I’m a free human being with the ability to make decisions and act on them, to say ‘No’ to my selfish nature and ‘yes’ to the way of love and gentleness and grace. So I say to the couples who ask me to officiate at their weddings, “Don’t sit back and wait to see if your marriage will work out! Rather, pray every day for God’s strength, and then you go and make it work out! You can do it, with God’s help!”

Thirdly, God’s love is practical. It’s not just about high-sounding ideas or feelings, but concrete actions, giving us the things that we need for life and health and safety. When Jesus is expressing this, he says that God makes his rain fall and his sun shine on us, righteous and unrighteous alike. In his infinite wisdom and kindness God has designed his universe in such a way that our needs can be met through the good things he has provided for us.

Romance is wonderful and every marriage needs it, but if there isn’t a huge helping of practical love too, no marriage can survive. One of my favourite books about marriage is called Sex Begins in the Kitchen. And the title isn’t talking about kinky sex either! It’s saying that if the partners aren’t willing to serve each other in practical ways like sharing chores and cleaning up and that sort of thing – well, don’t be surprised if things don’t go too well in the more intimate parts of their marriage, either. That’s a special challenge to me, I must admit.

But finally, and in contrast to that, we also need to say that God’s love is pure magic. I mean, imagine if a famous person who you really admire was coming to town, someone who is looked up to by hundreds of thousands of people, but someone who doesn’t know you from a hole in the wall. Now imagine getting a card in the mail from that person saying, “Could we have lunch while I’m in Edmonton? I’ve always wanted to get to know you better!” Wouldn’t you be amazed? Wouldn’t you just be thrilled out of your socks?

But the Christian gospel has even better news. The one who is responsible for everything that exists – the one my friend Rob Heath calls ‘The Chairman of the Board of Existence’ – loves you personally and wants to be your friend! Doesn’t that just blow you away? It’s hard to believe that such a thing could be true, but Jesus assures us that it is!

Married couples who are deeply in love with each other have this same sense of wonder. “How did I get so lucky? I mean, she could have picked anyone, but she picked me!” Of course, in the early days of our relationship this sense of wonder is very strong. In most marriages, as time goes by it wanes a bit – the emotion isn’t as strong as it once was – but wise Christian couples know that this is natural and so it doesn’t scare them. What they do is to concentrate on living out the other aspects of God’s love for their partner – accepting one another unconditionally, forgiving one another, being faithful to one another, caring for one another in simple and practical ways, day in and day out. And as they do this faithfully, as the years go by something deeper and more lasting starts to grow, and one morning you wake up and think “Wow! No one told me about this!” That’s why you see elderly couples in their seventies walking down the street holding hands like teenagers: they’ve found the magic.

I hope that all of us who are married will continue to find that magic as we live out God’s love for one another. God has brought us together, and so, as we pray for his help every day, God will help us to grow into the sort of relationship that is his dream for us – a relationship which will cause other people to say, “You want to see what God’s love is like? Look at that couple and the way they live together – that’s what it’s like!”

dormgrandpop: What does it take to stay married 50 years?

dormgrandpop: What does it take to stay married 50 years?

dormgrandpop

Monday, May 30, 2005

What does it take to stay married 50 years?

In a blog written some days ago, I quoted the response of a friend to my question “what does it take to remain married for 50 years?”. “It ain’t easy” the this wise octogenarian lady responded. When I recently mentioned to my counselor that I was attending a 50^th wedding anniversary celebration, she remarked, “…one of the few marriages that survived the 60s.”

I think I may have discovered the secret of long marriages and it is quite simple. Virtually all marriage ceremonies include a solemn vow that this is a lifetime commitment. The most widely used vows (in protestant denominations and the Roman Catholic church) also include the phrases “for better or worse, in sickness and in health, for richer or poorer, until death do us part.” Young men and women who repeat these vows to seal their first marriage rarely have the slightest idea what they really mean – how could they. The have not experienced the moments of “…for worse” that with certainty lie ahead for them. When those moments hit, one or both partners, in about 50 per-cent of US marriages abjure their vows.

A colleague of mine, titled a recent book: Second Marriage: The triumph of love over experience. Those who marry a second time should at least know what their “lifetime” vows mean – though many of these marriages too, end in divorce. A women friend of mine, still enduring a bad marriage (her second) but contributing nothing to changing it, once described her marriage certificate and the vows it recorded as “nothing more than a scrap of paper.”

But for those whose marriages survive fifty years, their vows have proved to be ‘more than a scrap of paper.’ For whatever reason, they have created a space within which the two “partners” have chosen to make the accommodations that staying married required. Honoring the “for worse” and “until death do us part” clauses in marriage vows is obviously the first – and simple – answer to the question “What does it take to stay married 50 years?” It takes the commitment on both sides, for whatever reasons, to stay married, “for better or for worse.”

Of course that commitment does not guarantee that all marriages surviving 50 years are “good marriages”. Survival (mere survival) says little about the quality of the relationship.

Psychologist Judith Wallerstein studied 50 marriages, self characterized by both partners as “good” and tried to capture what as essential about them in her book The Good Marriage. The essence of her description, as well as the yearning for a genuinely good marriage most of us share is captured in the following quotation.

“In every study in which Americans are asked what they value most in assessing the quality of their lives, marriage comes first – ahead of friends, jobs and money. In our fast paced world, men and women need each other more, not less. We want and need erotic love, sympathetic love, passionate love, tender, nurturing love all our adult lives. We desire friendship, compassion, encouragement, a sense of being understood and appreciated, not only for what we do but for what we try to do and fail at. We want a relationship in which we can test our half baked ideas without shame or pretense and give voice to our deepest fears. We want a partner who sees us as unique and irreplaceable.

“A good marriage can offset the loneliness of life in crowded cities and provide a refuge from the hammering pressures of the competitive workplace. It can counter the anomie of an increasingly impersonal world, where so many people interact with machines rather than fellow workers. In a good marriage, each person can find sustenance we all feel in the face of frustrations about having to yield to other people’s wishes and rights. Marriage provides an oasis where sex, humor and play can flourish.

What is required for a "good marriage?" Minimally, I believe, it requires that both partners make their commitment to the marriage a priority. They have to work at it, but not too hard, – and play at it too. When people marry, they often assume that the marriage part of their lives is ‘handled,’ by virtue of their marriage vows, giving them license to move on to other priorities – career, good works, a passionately followed hobby or avocation, children, other relationships and the like. In my entire life, I have only witnessed one marriage that rose to the level described in Wallerstein’s book, though I believe my parents 50+ year marriage may have approached it, at times. I am no longer close enough to my friends in Cleveland to judge, after a short visit, where their marriage fits on the continuum between mere survival and a good – even great – marriage.

Actuarial realities make it highly unlikely that my own second marriage will endure to celebrate a 50^th anniversary. And I don’t regret that my first marriage did not. All in all, I am ambivalent about 50 year marriages, though the very best of them appear to have repaid the couples who invested in them with substantial dividends. Perhaps only those who have had the experience are in a position to judge thoughtfully.

My Way News - Iraq Leader Lashes Out at U.S. Critics

My Way News - Iraq Leader Lashes Out at U.S. Critics

Iraq Leader Lashes Out at U.S. Critics
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Aug 22, 7:54 AM (ET)

By QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA

(AP) Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malki speaks during a joint press conference with his Syrian... Full Image

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) - Iraq's prime minister lashed out at American criticism, saying Wednesday that no one has a right to put timetables on his elected government.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki blamed the U.S. presidential campaign for the recent tough words from the Bush administration and from other American politicians.

"No one has the right to place timetables on the Iraq government. It was elected by its people," he said at a news conference in Damascus at the end of a three-day visit to Syria.

"Those who make such statements are bothered by our visit to Syria. We will pay no attention. We care for our people and our constitution and can find friends elsewhere," al-Maliki said.

U.S. Sen. Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat, said Monday that al-Maliki should be ousted and replaced with a less sectarian leader.

In addition, both President Bush and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker on Tuesday voiced frustration and disappointment with the al-Maliki government.

The harsh exchange erupted just a few weeks before Crocker and the U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, are to report to Congress on the success of the latest military campaign to reduce violence in Iraq, and the Iraqi government's progress in achieving political reconciliation.

Without naming any American official, al-Maliki said some of the criticism of him and his government was "discourteous."

Curmudgeonly & Skeptical�

Curmudgeonly & Skeptical�

Top 10 "Hillary Actually Said This"

“ 10. "It's been said, and I think it's accurate, that my husband was obsessed by terrorism in general and al-Qaida in particular." (Hillary telling a post-9/11 world what a great commander in chief her husband was; Dateline, NBC 4/16/2004.) 9. "I have to admit that a good deal of what my husband and I have learned [about Islam] has come from our daughter." (Circa 1996, at a White House function, Hillary proudly tells some Muslim groups she is gaining a greater appreciation of Islam because Chelsea was then taking a class on the "religion of peace"; TruthInMedia.org 8/8/1999.) Note: See No. 4. Muslim groups, with ties to Hamas, were welcomed at the Clinton White House. But not Republicans. 8. "Many of you are well enough off that [President Bush's] tax cuts may have helped you. We're saying that for America to get back on track, we're probably going to cut that short and not give it to you. We're going to have to take things away from you on behalf of the common good." (Hillary to her fellow liberals in a speech in San Francisco; SFGate.com 6/28/2004.) 7. "Why do I have to keep proving to people that I am not a liar?" (First Lady Hillary in her 2000 Senate campaign; "The Survivor," p. 382, by John Harris.) 6. "A right-wing network was after his presidency...including perverting the Constitution." (To Barbara Walters about the Republicans who impeached her husband; 20/20, ABC 6/8/2003.) Note: Even though it is common knowledge what Clinton did with Monica Lewinsky and a cigar, Hillary claims the Republicans are the perverts. 5. "Son of a bitch." (Hillary's opinion of President George W. Bush when she found out he secretly visited Iraq just days before her highly publicized trip to Iraq; "American Evita," p. 259, by Christopher Anderson.) 4. "What are you doing inviting these people into my home? These people are our enemies! They are trying to destroy us!" (Hillary's reaction to an aide, when she found out that some Republicans had been invited to the Clinton White House, circa 1993; "The Survivor," p. 99, by John Harris.) Note: She said this just months after Islamic terrorists bombed the World Trade Center, attempting to kill everyone at the WTC complex. 3. "I mean, you've got a conservative and right-wing press presence with really nothing on the other end of the political spectrum." (Hillary complains about the mainstream media, which are all conservatives in her opinion; aired on C-Span, 1/19/1997.) 2. "Come on Bill, put your dick up. You can't **** her here." (Hillary to Gov. Clinton when she spots him talking with an attractive female at an Arkansas political rally; "Inside The White House," p. 243, by Ronald Kessler.) 1. "You sold out, you mother******! You sold out." (While an intern on Capitol Hill, Hillary Rodham yells at a prominent Democrat lawyer because he was representing someone from a large, profit-driven corporation; "Inside," p. 213, by Joseph Califano.)

Value Discipline: Fear, Corrections, and Regret- Crisis of Confidence

Value Discipline: Fear, Corrections, and Regret- Crisis of Confidence

Fear, Corrections, and Regret- Crisis of Confidence

Corrections happen. They are painful, come up spontaneously and unexpectedly, frequently take your breath away and replace your confidence with fear. It is important , at least in my view, to remember at times like these, all of those factors that brought you into capital markets or your specific investment holdings in the first place. Don't let yourself be spellbound with fear.

The flurry of liquidation will subside as redemptions end, as valuations come to irresistible levels, and as anxiety diminishes. Though bargains, in my view do not yet abound, considerable valuation opportunity has opened in the last week. One day leaps of faith represent little indication of anything beyond traders' bravado. Risk adjustments are taking place fairly quickly in the corporate bond realm, and it is important to recognize that you as the owner of the equity have the bottom rung or the residual position.

The malaise of the junk bond market spills over into equity markets fairly easily. Spreads which had narrowed to silly levels of 60-70 basis points over Treasuries now find themselves in a more reasonable, but hardly generous 250-280 basis points over. Think of equities as being the lowest form of junk debt to put the proper perspective in place. Hence, risk premia in Discounted Cash Flow models must open up to reflect the fact that the bond guys are getting their pound of flesh, at long last.

Though the housing market has gone to hell in a handbasket, this is hardly news. There is no entitlement to home ownership for someone with bad credit or no dough...if you think otherwise, get real. If you are worried about your CDO holdings, despite having an "investment grade" tranche of BBB, get real. There is a reason that those who were yield hogs, got slaughtered and chances are, your going-in yield on the BBB tranche was some 200 basis points over where more "normal" credits traded. It ain't going to be pretty if you find yourself stuck in one of these situations. Liquidity dries up and the only enticement is offering your tainted merchandise with a lower price. The old investment adage "the first loss is the best loss" often applies. Being mesmerized by fear of taking a loss is a horrible trait that most of us (and especially men!) have.

Make an honest assessment of the quality of your investments. If it smells (i.e. cash flow from operations is negative, increased working capital is needed as a percentage of revenues as revenues grow, increased capital intensity, diminishing interest coverage, falling profitability) just sell it. If retained earnings is a negative number on the balance sheet, your company may be selling on hope rather than fundamentals. You probably shouldn't have been there in the first place. Take time to learn what the credit rating of the underlying bonds and debenture of your equity investments might be. Despite their poor timeliness and recently tainted reputation, the bond rating agencies can generally distinguish good interest coverage from bad. If your company is below investment grade in its debt ratings, you may be in for a rocky ride as the equity valuation adjusts to the increased yield on the debt.

There is little solace in this great Buffett quote, "You can't tell who is swimming naked until the tide goes out." Central banks around the world injected almost $300 billion in liquidity on Thursday and Friday of last week to try to fill in for where the tide had gone out. Fear is rampant out there, apparently even among central bankers. Don't let it mesmerize you!

Personally, this feels more like a panic than a crisis...more of a rough patch that may last weeks rather than a "drag your guts in the gravel" crisis. I have heard or read three warnings of the present market resembling a pre-crash 1987 scenario...I doubt it. Unless bond and money markets becomes so disabled that we need 150-200 basis points to clear merchandise, I don't sense more than another 5% of downside in aggregate averages. Who knows? Mr. Market seems quite despondent and may overshoot my objective.

Though many investors seem to want to see a Fed rate cut, its negative impact on the dollar could reverse the flow of foreign capital...I am not counting on such Fed action.

What to do? In my view, it is late to try to raise cash. In my view, you may regret not having taken sufficient risk in buying some equities in this weakness. What's on my shopping list?

Though it flies in the face of most strategists' advice, I like a number of financial services stocks. US Bancorp (USB) and Citi (C) are two of my choices among large domestic banks. I like Allied Irish (AIB) and Credit Suisse (CS) as well for international exposure. Even some community banks, which I have avoided for some time are starting to look more reasonable to me.

Some of the business services companies such as payment processors and tax preparation companies look interesting. Kartik Mehta of FTN Midwest Securities is interviewed in this week's Wall Street Transcript (subscription required.) These companies generate a significant amount of cash flow and a significant amount of recurring revenue and have low capex needs. Frequently, they tie into small business but also have some bank exposure. Companies like First Data (FDC) and Alliance Data (ADS) have already been chased down by private equity. By the way, I continue to believe that private equity deals will continue to be part of our investment scenario for at least the next year. In the business services I like Global Payments (GPN) and Total System Services (TSS)

Here is an interesting screen of companies that have bought back stock, every year for the last five years, in excess of stock issuance as well as pay better than a 2% yield, and that are down more than 10% in the last month. This is not a buy list, but an explore list. There are some companies hear that I would not touch!

Stick to your discipline and show some patience. Buy stocks that you feel comfortable with over a longer period of time. Buy into businesses that if Mr. Market continues in his anger, you will feel comfortable to step up to the plate again and adding to your positions at even better prices!

Ignore the histrionics and the hysteria. Like your batting coach told you in Little League, "You've got to keep swing ing the bat." There should be a fair number of fat pitches coming our way!

Disclaimer: I, my family, or clients have current positions in USB, C, AIB, CS, GPN, AZN, CMA, FII, and TOT.

Entering the Tough Oil Era | EnergyBulletin.net | Peak Oil News Clearinghouse

Entering the Tough Oil Era | EnergyBulletin.net | Peak Oil News Clearinghouse

oil output in the United States and most other non-members of the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC) has peaked, or is about to do so, which means that the net contribution of non-OPEC suppliers will only diminish between now and 2012. That, in turn, means that the burden of providing the required additional oil will have to fall on the OPEC countries, most of which are located in unstable areas of the Middle East and Africa.

The numbers are actually staggering. Just to satisfy a demand for an extra 10 million or so barrels per day between now and 2012, two million barrels per day in new oil would have to be added to global stocks yearly. But even this calculation is misleading, as Eagles of the IEA made clear. In fact, the world would initially need "more than 3 million barrels per day of new oil each year [just] to offset the falling production in the mature fields outside of OPEC" -- and that's before you even get near that additional two million barrels.

In other words, what's actually needed is five million barrels of new oil each year, a truly daunting challenge since almost all of this oil will have to be found in Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Angola, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela, and one or two other countries. These are not places that exactly inspire investor confidence of a sort that could attract the many billions of dollars needed to ramp up production enough to satisfy global requirements.

Read between the lines and one quickly perceives a worst-case scenario in which the necessary investment is not forthcoming; OPEC production does not grow by five million barrels per day year after year; ethanol and other substitute-fuel production, along with alternate fuels of various sorts, do not grow fast enough to fill the gap; and, in the not-too-distant future, a substantial shortage of oil leads to a global economic meltdown.

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Gabor Steingart: America and the Dollar Illusion

Gabor Steingart: America and the Dollar Illusion: "America and the Dollar Illusion"

Fossil fuels at peak (11-part series) | EnergyBulletin.net | Peak Oil News Clearinghouse

Fossil fuels at peak (11-part series) | EnergyBulletin.net | Peak Oil News Clearinghouse

Gloom!!!

EFT (Emotional Freedom Techniques): Resource center for Energy Psychology.

EFT (Emotional Freedom Techniques): Resource center for Energy Psychology.

!!!! EFT

Malc's Blog: If like me your eyesight is deteriorating, read this and consider doing something about it.

Malc's Blog: If like me your eyesight is deteriorating, read this and consider doing something about it. ETF Tapping

FORGOTTEN PROPHETS: All Good Moslems Go to Hell

FORGOTTEN PROPHETS: All Good Moslems Go to Hell

Excellent!

Crude price/ Forcast

Crude Price/ Forcast

ASSE The Myths of Safety

ASSE The Myths of Safety EXXON Oil Spill

Think of the greatest environmental disaster in recent history. For many people, the Exxon Valdez spill in Prince William Sound comes to mind.

Three hundred seals, 2,800 sea otters, 250,000 sea birds and a host of other wildlife were killed by that spill, acknowledged Corrie Pitzer, an industrial psychologist from SAFEmap International in Vancouver. However, he added, 250,000 birds are killed by flying into windows every year.

"The cleanup cost was $2.1 billion, with a 50 percent reach," Pitzer told an audience at a June 25 session of the American Society of Safety Engineers' (ASSE) 2007 Professional Development Conference in Orlando, Fla. "That means that only 50 percent of Prince William Sound was cleaned."

Six years after the cleanup, a study was conducted to determine ecological recovery in the sound. What researchers found was that the areas that were not cleaned were in better shape – with more wildlife and cleaner water and soil – than the areas that had been cleaned. The chemicals and high-pressure washing used to "clean" the area had destroyed the ecosystem in some parts of Prince William Sound.

"The environmental disaster was the cleanup," said Pitzer.

R-Squared Energy Blog: Peak Lite Revisited

R-Squared Energy Blog: Peak Lite Revisited: "Future Oil Price Behavior?"

JoeRoseBlog

JoeRoseBlog

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How I Escaped from Living Paycheck-to-Paycheck ∞ Get Rich Slowly

How I Escaped from Living Paycheck-to-Paycheck ∞ Get Rich Slowly

Citizenship And Our Society by Kim du Toit (printed from TheOtherSideofKim.com)

Citizenship And Our Society by Kim du Toit (printed from TheOtherSideofKim.com): "Citizenship And Our Society

Wonderful fro july 4
"

TCS Daily - Absorption Nation

TCS Daily - Absorption Nation

Contrarian view on immigration.

Find a Lawyer - Seeking Alpha

Find a Lawyer - Seeking Alpha: "Find a Lawyer"

World oil reserves used up faster than they're being found | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

World oil reserves used up faster than they're being found | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle: "World oil reserves used up faster than they're being found"

321energy :: The Big Picture for North American Natural Gas :: Jim Letourneau

321energy :: The Big Picture for North American Natural Gas :: Jim Letourneau

32% Decline Rate?

321energy :: Why (really) is our planet warming? :: Brian Bloom

321energy :: Why (really) is our planet warming? :: Brian Bloom

Why (Really) is Our Planet Warming?

Brian Bloom
June 23, 2007
www.beyondneanderthal.com

Warning: The article that follows cuts across conventional wisdom.

The reader is entreated to leave his/her prejudices at the door and to approach this Global Warming boat-rocking article with an open mind. There is too much at stake to not rock the Global Warming boat.

By way of introduction, it will probably be constructive to focus on the well accepted principle that "No man is an island". Individual's have a need to belong. It's called a social need. We all have it in varying degrees. Thus, when society as a whole embraces a particular idea it is very difficult for a normal individual to embrace any contrary idea which might be seen to be undermining that which has become generally accepted. Such behaviour would be viewed by the group as disloyal, and would have the effect of marginalising that individual from the society to which he belongs. Such marginalisation can be very traumatic - particularly when society as a whole is under stress and people feel a heightened need to band together.

There are many examples to illustrate the point, one of which was in respect of Copernicus. He was the guy who argued that the Earth revolved around the sun when Church policy was that the Earth was the centre of the Universe. The hard fact is that ancient civilizations dating as far back as 3,500 BCE already knew for a certainty that which Copernicus was putting forward as a so-called radical new idea in 1,530CE; 5,000 years later. So, if Copernicus' idea wasn't particularly radical, why did he wait until he was on his deathbed in 1543CE before publishing? Answer: It would not have been Politically Correct to rock the boat. Life was stressful in Copernicus' days. The world was midway through a mini Ice Age at the time. In addition, the Catholic Church - which had solidified its power during the Crusades, was under threat from Martin Luther's reformists. (Luther and Copernicus lived at the same time).

As a starting point, it's important to bear in mind that a given volume of water requires 30-50 times as much energy to warm it as will be required to warm the same volume of air. Both our oceans (which cover two thirds of the surface of our planet) and our air (which extends as high as the mesosphere) have been warming. The question is: Have our warming oceans warmed our atmosphere, or has our warming atmosphere warmed our oceans?

This is not a frivolous question: Which has been cause, and which has been effect?

Let's look at the Greenhouse Gas argument, which suggests that whilst the albedo coefficient of any particular surface on Earth quantifies the proportion of the sun's heat energy which is reflected from that surface, in the case of the planet Earth as a whole, this overall reflected infra-red heat is now being absorbed by the elevated levels of CO2.; thereby causing a warming of our atmosphere. i.e. By this argument, the warming atmosphere has warmed our oceans. That, in layman's language, is one theory.

I have heard another theory - to the effect that all the heat being given off by the coal fired power plants, and exhaust fumes of motor cars, and people sweating in gyms all over the planet, is being absorbed by the CO2 blanket.

There is yet a third theory: Because CO2 being emitted into the atmosphere is heavier than air it has been sinking into our oceans, where it has been absorbed. The oceans now no longer have the capacity to absorb any more, and the chemical reaction of the gas dissolving in the oceans has been warming them.

The reality is that the idea of a linkage between CO2 emissions and global warming has been "bought" by the public, notwithstanding the fact that very few people understand the precise mechanism by which the warming is supposed to be occurring. Unfortunately, when you stop to think about it, none of these arguments passes the commons sense test:

1. If there is indeed a large volume of CO2 in our atmosphere, and if CO2 does indeed absorb infra-red heat, why would it not absorb the heat of the sun's rays on their way to the earth's surface? Why would this infra-red heat be allowed to pass through the CO2, only to be absorbed when it is reflected? Surely, using this logic, exactly the opposite should happen. If less heat reaches the Earth's surface, then the Earth's surface should be cooling, not heating!

2. The fact is that CO2 is heavier than air. Everyone who has been to a live performance play will know that when dry ice (frozen CO2) melts, a white cloud of CO2 gas crawls along the stage below knee level. It does not rise into the air. Under such circumstances, how is it possible for a 'blanket' of CO2 to trap the exothermic warmth of burning fossil fuels?

3. Why would water warm when CO2 dissolves in it? When you dissolve salt in water does the water warm up? What is the chemical reaction? Are our oceans turning into carbonic acid? (H2CO3)

Unfortunately, we live in a culture which has been weaned on the "sound bite". Our politicians say something or the media reports something and, therefore, it must be true. In respect of CO2 in the air, some of it does indeed combine with water vapour to form carbonic acid. The following is a direct quote from an article entitled "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground": "Thus if the quantity of carbonic acid increases in geometric progression [exponentially] , the augmentation of the temperature will increase nearly in arithmetic progression" (Source: http://web.lemoyne.edu/~GIUNTA/Arrhenius.html )

The reality is that there is no statistically defensible linkage between Greenhouse Gases (interesting emotive name) and Global Warming. In the absence of statistical proof of cause and effect, it is as likely that our warming oceans have warmed our atmosphere as it is that our warming atmosphere has warmed our oceans.

How do I know that this is the reality?: Because a guy by the name of Edward Wegman said so.

Edward Wegman is no ordinary naysayer. These are his credentials:

Professor at the Centre for Computational Statistics at George Mason UniversityChairman of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics,Board member of the American Statistical Association.

Wegman headed a panel which investigated the statistical model on which the entire argument of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is based, and this panel concluded that the model was flawed. Intuition notwithstanding, Wegman's panel concluded there is no statistically relevant linkage between CO2 emissions and Climate Change.

So, we are faced with the following:

There is no doubt that the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have been risingThere is no doubt that the planet has been warming

Global Warming protagonists, their voices raised in hysteria, make the following unsubstantiated statement: "Hey guys. Clearly, the one caused the other". Additionally, based on this assumedlinkage, they are forecasting a continuing hockey stick rise in global temperatures. By drawing a straight line through a series of dots on the CO2 emission chart, they are concluding that "Therefore, unless we reduce CO2 emissions, the global temperature will rise right up to the sky".

Their conclusion?: "The world needs to reduce CO2 emissions".

This idea of a cause and effect linkage between CO2 emissions and Climate Change has now been adopted. It has become mainstream. It is also factually incorrect. Not only is it wrong, it isdangerously wrong - because it is causing us to take our eye of the ball. We are not focussing on the real issues - the real causes of Climate Change.

I put it to the readers of this article that the time has come for a reality check! Look around you: All of Nature vibrates in a cyclical manner. The sun rises and sets in a predictable fashion. When you go for an Electrocardiograph test, what the ECG is monitoring is a pulsating pattern of your heartbeat. The entire Universe, and everything in it, is vibrating with sinusoidal energy - a vibration which tends to be repetitive over time.

In the 1920s, Milutin Milankovitch published the Milankovitch Theory, which states that as the Earth travels through space around the sun, cyclical variations in three elements of Earth-sun geometry combine to produce variations in the amount of solar energy that reaches Earth:

1. Variations in the Earth's orbital eccentricity-the shape of the orbit around the sun.

2. Changes in obliquity-changes in the angle that Earth's axis makes with the plane of Earth's orbit.

3. Precession-the change in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation, i.e., the axis of rotation behaves like the spin axis of a top that is winding down; hence it traces a circle on the celestial sphere over a period of time.

Together, the periods of these orbital motions have become known as Milankovitch cycles.

Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/Giants/Milankovitch/

In addition to these, there is yet another influence on the amount of sun's irradiation that reaches our planet's surface - the intensity of solar activity. In turn, this is impacted and influenced by the sun's position relative to other stars as it travels along its own cyclical pathway through the vast Milky Way Galaxy.

To suggest that humanity is capable of impacting and disturbing forces of such magnitude is reflective of a self-centred arrogance that is mind numbing. Humanity is a subset of Nature. Nature is not a subset of humanity. We have travelled full circle. We are back in the mindset that prevailed when Society's leaders dictated what people in Copernicus' days may or may not think. The Earth is once again flat.

In the end analysis, our sun has been unusually active in the past twelve to thirteen years. Increased irradiation has warmed our oceans. This caused a slowing of the heat pump which is known as the Great Ocean Conveyor System. It also caused a warming of our atmosphere. In turn, this caused the ice on the surface of the planet to rearrange itself. This ice has been melting in some parts of the world and increasing in other parts. A fall of up to 10 degrees can be expected to occur in the Northern Hemisphere - where 88% - 90% of the planet's population lives. I would hypothesise that this might be one reason why the bee colonies have been decimated. (Colony Collapse Disorder)

For evidence that we are in all likelihood experiencing the culmination phase of an 11,500 year Global Warming cycle preparatory to entering another Ice Age (the fifth in 425,000 years) please refer to page 3 on my website at www.beyondneanderthal.com - behind the button entitled "Introducing Beyond Neanderthal"

For evidence relating the current cosmological impact on our planet's climate, please refer to the following article which appeared on today's Drudge Report:

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/comment/story.html?id=597d0677-2a05-47b4-b34f-b84068db11f4&p=4

In particular, refer to the work of

Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia , andHenrik Svensmark of the Danish National Space Center

For an understanding of what the impact of this might be on life on Planet Earth, I commend you to read: The Little Ice Age, How Climate Made History, 1300-1850, Brian Fagan, Basic Books, 2000

All of which begs the question: If we are indeed headed for an Ice Age, what the bleep do we do about it?

That is one of the questions which is addressed in-depth by my novel, Beyond Neanderthal.

Brian Bloom
www.beyondneanderthal.com
June 23st, 2007.

World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists - Independent Online Edition > Sci_Tech

World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists - Independent Online Edition > Sci_Tech

The Big Picture | Weblogs

The Big Picture | Weblogs

Top 20 financial blogs

The Bull Trader - #1 Stock Charts Market Blog

The Bull Trader - #1 Stock Charts Market Blog

Ethical Investment Advice | Precious Metal

Ethical Investment Advice | Precious Metal

America the Indespensable Nation? to liberate the masses????

The Moor Next Door: No More Iraqs: "When the United States became the only superpower and was no longer restrained by calculations of Soviet reactions to U.S. actions, quite a few in the American foreign policy elite could not withstand the temptation of triumphalism and a sense of unlimited possibilities."

Dirty Couple in Virginia: Party Games - Part 1

Party Games - Part 1

IBES Valuation Model: Stocks Extremely Undervalued

IBES Valuation Model: Stocks Extremely Undervalued

Buy! uy! Buy!!

Gristmill: The environmental news blog | Grist

Gristmill: The environmental news blog | Gri
how to answer skeptics

The Other Side of Kim du Toit - TheOtherSideofKim Front Page

The Other Side of Kim du Toit - TheOtherSideofKim Front Page

Your 20s: See how your wealth measures up - MSN Money

Your 20s: See how your wealth measures up - MSN Money

The Best of Get Rich Slowly: May 2007 Edition ∞ Get Rich Slowly

The Best of Get Rich Slowly: May 2007 Edition ∞ Get Rich Slowly

Easy Ways to Spend Less on Your Computer ∞ Get Rich Slowly

Easy Ways to Spend Less on Your Computer ∞ Get Rich Slowly

Yet another weird SF fan

Yet another weird SF fan

Immigration is basically a plumbing problem - our border leaks. When you have plumbing that leaks, you fix the leak before you start cleaning up your house. Build a fence and stop the leak, then decide how to clean up.

Note that the leak is cause by a pressure differential across the souther border - lots of people want to come here. (Compare to northern border). Economic opportunity here far exceeds that in their own country, and there is little risk of associated with coming here illegally. So pressure builds to our south. Once the leak is stopped, we can look at ways to equalize the pressure. Strict enforcement and deportation would do it. Getting Mexico to reform would help as well. I'm also fine with increasing legal immigration through carefully regulated valves on our southern border.

Ironically, amnesty will only increase the pressure.

Yes, I am an engineer.

On the other hand, if a leak is fixed but the water isn't conducted away, it will recur. According to to former blog Trolling in Shallow Water (quoted here):

One phrase the inspector seemed to like was "water will win." Apparently this is an aphorism he picked up in the Army Corps of Engineers. What it means is that, unless you give water an easy route to somewhere harmless, it will make its own route by wearing through whatever is in the way. A roof is not kept in good condition by waterproofing alone; that will fail unless there are appropriate gutters and flashings to let the water run off the roof. Likewise, the rain gutters must give water a clear path to a point far from the foundation, or the crawl space will flood no matter how solid the foundation is. Water will win.

Also see here:

If you build in the path of moving water, sooner or later, water will win.

Econbrowser: Peak oil in America

Econbrowser: Peak oil in America: "I do think that the war would not have happened if Iraq was a country with no resources. The risks from having someone like Saddam Hussein in control of such a vast sum of wealth, and fear of the damage he could cause with it, was in my opinion a key reason that the U.S. initiated that ongoing profound bloodshed."

Agoraphilia

Agoraphilia

inieresting graph on gas prices/household back to 1977

Environmental Economics: All politicians are idiots and other obvious thoughts on high gas prices

Environmental Economics: All politicians are idiots and other obvious thoughts on high gas prices

321energy :: Depletion Levels in Ghawar :: Stuart Staniford

321energy :: Depletion Levels in Ghawar :: Stuart Staniford

Four Year Stock Market Cycle

Four Year Stock Market Cycle

321energy :: LSGI Investment Commentary: Fireworks in the Energy Sector... :: Joseph Dancy

321energy :: LSGI Investment Commentary: Fireworks in the Energy Sector... :: Joseph Dancy

Francis W. Porretto - Great tome on Islam and America

Francis W. Porretto - Eternity Road
America, the supreme expression of Enlightenment civilization, must not allow its political and philosophical basis to be compromised by an influx of persons whose avowed creed is antithetical to all our assumptions, practices, and public norms, and who've capitalized on every opportunity to impose themselves on excessively "tolerant" others. Europe and Britain have allowed it, and the results are before us. This is not a subject upon which we can afford to refuse to learn from the mistakes of others.

321energy :: Ali Samsam Bakhtiari and Peak Oil :: Byron W. King

321energy :: Ali Samsam Bakhtiari and Peak Oil :: Byron W. King

Very Interesting.

My new golfing book

The Boiling Point: April 2007

My New Golf Book

Many of you may not know it, but I have been very busy over the last 2 years putting my thoughts and ideas together in a book. I am very proud of the results.

I believe my new book on golf gives the reader valuable playing tips and insider information that I have gained through my years of struggle with this fooking game!

Listed below is the table of contents for your review:

Chapter 1 - How to Properly Line Up Your Third Putt
Chapter 2 - How to Hit a Nike from the Rough, when You Hit a Titleist from the Tee
Chapter 3 - How to Avoid the Water When You Lie 8 in a Bunker
Chapter 4 - How to Get More Distance off the Shank
Chapter 5 - When to Give the Ranger the Finger
Chapter 6 - Using Your Shadow on the Greens to Maximize Earnings
Chapter 7 - When to Implement Handicap Management
Chapter 8 - Proper Excuses for Drinking Beer Before 9:00 a.m.
Chapter 9 - How to Rationalize a 6 Hour Round
Chapter 10 - How to Find That Ball That Everyone Else Saw Go in the Water
Chapter 11 - Explaining Why Your Cart is Stuck in the Sand Trap
Chapter 12 - How to Look Pleased as you Let a Foursome Play Through Your Twosome
Chapter 13 - How to Relax When You Are Hitting Three Off the Tee
Chapter 14 - When to Suggest Major Swing Corrections to Your Opponent
Chapter 15 - Effective use of your Caddie for Club Selection on the Green
Chapter 16 - When to Regrip Your Ball Retriever
Chapter 17 - How to Safely Return to the Fifth Green from the Eighth Tee to Retrieve Your Sand Wedge

and finally,

Chapter 18 - Why Male Golfers Will Pay $5.00 for a Beer from the Beer Cart Girl and Give Her a $3.00 Tip, But Will Balk at Paying $4.00 at the 19th Hole and Stiff the Bartender.

I'll be happy to send you a signed copy for just $19.95 plus shipping.

Land of Black Gold: Henry Groppe: Got oil?

Land of Black Gold: Henry Groppe: Got oil?

Protect Your Identity - Seeking Alpha

Protect Your Identity - Seeking Alpha

Info just in case

Neanderpundit � For the automotively challenged:

Neanderpundit � For the automotively challenged:

Have the Grandkids read!

Francis W. Porretto - Eternity Road

Francis W. Porretto - Eternity Road

The Survival Mentality

By Wahrheit

I decided to not to write about the murders at Virginia Tech right away--I had a pretty good idea of what was coming from the media, and the political class, and the only pleasant surprise there were the low key, limited cries for gun confiscation from the Democrats. The New York Times editorial was utterly predictable, which is why I don’t read that particular paper anymore; I recall that information theory says that a signal only conveys information if it contains unexpected data. And the MSM and most politicians had nothing unexpected to contribute, anymore.

I’m not interested in writing about media coverage today, anyway. I’m going to write about survival.

Conventional wisdom about aircraft hijackings used to be that passengers and crew should obey orders and act like good little sheeple until negotiations resulted in their release, hopefully with minimal casualties. This worked, most of the time, because most hijackers wanted achieve some objective that didn’t include their personal obliteration. It’s a commonplace now that after 9/11 passengers and crew will never again be so cooperative. Tragically, as the events at Virginia Tech show, this mentality hasn’t been fully accepted and integrated by enough individuals to make a difference in a non-hijack situation.

DISCLAIMER: As you consider what follows, you might keep in mind that I am not a black belt in any unarmed combat art, though I have had some training. I’m not a certified firearms instructor, though I’m quite familiar with most major weapons systems, and am a competent marksman. I’ve never had to fight for my life against an armed assailant, and fervently hope never to confront that necessity in the future.

I am a student of human history and the human mind, and based on what I know I’d like to offer some thoughts on the proper mindset, and actions to be considered, should you ever have to deal with a madman with a gun, whether at work, school or in some other setting.

The first, absolute and non-negotiable thing you must do is refuse to be a “victim.” The victim mentality is evident when a person obeys orders that he is fairly sure are going to lead to his own death. For example, a van pulls up next to you on the street and a man points a gun at you and orders you to get in. You
DO NOT get in, as the odds are high that you will meet a horrible, painful death if you do so. Instead, you drop, roll, spin, run away weaving and screaming bloody murder.

It is important to note here that handguns are involved in the vast majority of school and workplace attacks, carjackings and other public violent crime. Handguns are extraordinarily difficult to shoot accurately, especially at distances greater than a few yards and at moving targets. In most cases, if one takes sudden evasive action at a decent distance your average psychopath is not going to be able to hit you with a shot from a handgun. If he does hit you, even with a torso shot, the odds are at least even money that you will survive. If you stand still and let him control the situation, the odds are very, very poor for you--as so many found out in Virginia that day.

There’s no way that I can attempt to cover the great variety of tactical situations that you might face in this gravest of extremes, so I will outline what I would advise you to do were you to find yourself in a situation similar to that at Virginia Tech. First, clearly, at the earliest sign of trouble or sound of gunfire I would have fled the building and not stopped until I was a mile away--that’s almost too obvious to need restating. Yet, there are many situations on record where people, even after the warning signs were glaringly obvious, did not flee the scene in time. Many of us live much of our waking lives in a mild haze, a routine, and don’t pick up subtle clues until it’s too late. So first, be aware, as much of the time and as keenly as you can manage as you concentrate on the routine business of living.

Let’s move to the worst possible scenario, though; you’re in a classroom, or office, a gunman is in the hall firing, you can’t get out the window safely and you don’t have a firearm available. Here is where your mind and heart and courage, your mental preparation for this moment in time will give you the best chance of survival. This where you are going to refuse the victim role.

Obviously, if the door has a lock it’s locked by now, but that’s not stopping this killer. There’s a terrible clamor as rounds are fired at the handle and a tremendous crash as the door is kicked open.

You are not cowering under a desk hoping against hope that he will not notice you, or spare you if he sees you. You are behind cover, if there is any available, out of the line of fire through the door at a ninety degree angle to the side of the door that opens, and if the killer enters the room you are ready with your weapons, a chair a desk a backpack a telephone, anything big and heavy enough to look as if it would hurt, and as he takes the first step in that room you stay low and you start throwing things at his head like you’re Nolan Freaking Ryan, or sliding a table right at his crotch like a freight train. You are taking the initiative, unbalancing the psycho bastard, who has so far encountered nothing like this, and whose scenario only includes a feeling of absolute power over his chosen victims. He may fire wildly as he tries to duck; he may not even get off a shot in his surprise as you close on his sorry form. His aim will be bad and his mind will be in turmoil, but you know what you’re about; you’re about to take him OUT.

Hopefully, you have some kind of club or like object, but I don’t care if all you have is a stapler, or your bare hands; you come at him like his own doom, as fast and low as possible, as almost all shots under pressure go high. Even trained police officers have been known to fire over the head of the opponent from a few yards away; this guy is not trained, he’s a psycho who thought he was going to hold the power of life and death over a bunch of ciphers. He isn’t going to have factored you in at all.

Now you’re going to get control of the weapon by any means necessary and keep it out of action. If you get both hands on a revolver cylinder the thing isn’t going to fire at all, and if you get a hand on the slide/hammer area of almost any auto pistol it’s only going to be able to fire once. If you’ve got a club of some sort belt down on the wrist as close to the weapon as possible and then when the weapon is pointed away from you go to work on the face, the kneecap or the crotch, whichever is available, immediately and ferociously, but first and foremost keep the weapon unusable. If, thank God, he drops it, kick it away as far as you can.

If you do get shot, just keep going. Too many stupid movies and television programs have given all the wrong impressions about the effects of bullets on people. Much of the time, the person shot can continue to fight. If they’re in the Berserker mode, they may not even notice that they’ve been shot. You are going to be in the Berserker mode. You are going to fight until your strength is completely gone.

By now, if you were in a classroom or office setting with others, they have hopefully come to your aid, for if you had more than a couple of seconds preparation you took leadership and informed them of what you were going to do. If half a dozen people of any age, sex or condition will just fall on the killer, grab his arms, sit on his head, he will find it almost impossible to fire the weapon. Don’t count on anyone or anything else, however; your mentality must be that you are going to win, at any cost, by yourself. Even if all you have is a coffee cup, once you get the advantage, once you have controlled the weapon you are not going to stop, ever, with your coffee cup or your fists and elbows and feet and knees and fingernails and teeth until the vermin is unconscious or dead. I emphasize that again: You will not stop if he is crying, you will not stop if he is cowering with his hands over his face. Unconscious or dead, those are the options he has chosen for himself; and if you, through your efforts, get his weapon in your hands and it will fire, you will shoot him in the chest and continue to shoot until the weapon is empty, regardless of anything, of what he or anyone else says, or does. You must have this mentality, throughout the entirety of this situation, if you are to succeed in saving your own life and the lives of your classmates and coworkers.

I’m not talking about technique or training, though these would obviously be so very valuable in this kind of situation. I’m talking about a state of mind. I don’t care if you’re a 110-pound woman, a 70-year-old man, overweight, diabetic and a smoker.

You may not succeed; you may die. But if you cower in a corner you’re going to get shot in the face, or the back, and you are almost certainly going to die. If you can safely run, run. If you can safely hide, or barricade yourself, do it. But don’t let them find you later with a hole through your hands where you tried to stop a bullet.

If you going to die any way, die trying. You’re going to give yourself one hell of a lot better chance of living.

Channon Christian and Christopher Newsom murder - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Channon Christian and Christopher Newsom murder - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Colton Levi Clark: Channon Christian & Christopher Newsom - A Story That Must Be Told

Colton Levi Clark: Channon Christian & Christopher Newsom - A Story That Must Be Told

Francis W. Porretto - Eternity Road

Francis W. Porretto - Eternity Road
Horrible black on white crime. Where is media?

: "An Introduction to Square-Foot Gardening
Saturday, 21st April 2007 (by J.D."

The Oil Drum | Simple mathematics - The Saudi reserves, GOSPs and water injection

The Oil Drum | Simple mathematics - The Saudi reserves, GOSPs and water injection: "Simple mathematics - The Saudi reserves, GOSPs and water injection"

Land of Black Gold: Once More, with Feeling!

Land of Black Gold: Once More, with Feeling!

T BOONE PICKENS:

"You take 30 billion barrels out of the world's reserve base and we have not replaced 30 billion barrels since 1985. You're talking about twenty years. You keep drawing down on the world reserve base... and it is happening because you can't find big oil fields anymore. They're just not out there to find."

etc etc

American Thinker Blog: Was Cho taught to hate?

American Thinker Blog: Was Cho taught to hate?

321energy :: PETRODOLLAR & IRAN & IRAQ :: Jim Willie CB

321energy :: PETRODOLLAR & IRAN & IRAQ :: Jim Willie CB

Wonderful explanation of things not heard or seen!!!!!!!!!

Pearls Before Breakfast - washingtonpost.com

Pearls Before Breakfast - washingtonpost

Excellent story of one of worlds musicians playing at the subway for a lark. No one paid much attention.

BRING BACK DDT!!!!!!

Michael Fumento.com - Weblog - Future weapons against malaria - and the one we have now

Future weapons against malaria - and the one we have now

By Michael Fumento

O death, where is thy sting? Far too often it comes at the end of a mosquito’s proboscis. The worst mosquito-borne disease, malaria, infects about 400 million people worldwide each year (90 percent in sub-Saharan Africa) and kills about 1.3 million of them. Compare that to the histrionics we've suffered over avian flu, which as of 2 April had infected 25 people and killed 12 this year. Or SARS, which killed 774 people worldwide before petering out.

As I write in TCS Daily, biotechnology may eventually come to the rescue. Scientists have announced they've built a better mosquito, one that doesn't become infected with the parasite that causes malaria. Ultimately, it's hoped, these mosquitoes will outbreed natural ones. A biotech malaria vaccine is also in the works. Aye, but there's the rub. A malaria vaccine has been in the works for decades. For now what we need is something that's tried and true and readily available. Yes, that means insecticides and yes that means DDT. Fortunately, pro-DDT activists are finally starting to gain the upper hand over spoiled brat environmentalists who think the deaths of black- and brown-skinned people don't count and know nothing more about DDT than that Rachel Carson made all sorts of horrible claims about it of which none have proved true.

BEWARE OF QUACKWATCH - alt.support.cancer | Google Groups

BEWARE OF QUACKWATCH - alt.support.cancer | Google Groups Flor Essence testimony re Cancer healing

OpinionJournal - Federation

OpinionJournal - Federation

"Act quickly," Gen. Petraeus wrote in January 2006, "because every army of liberation has a half-life." This is true not only in the field but at home. James Thurber once said that the saddest two words in the English language are "too late." Terrible as it is to think that our surge may have come too late, it is much more terrible to think that feckless politicians, out of whatever calculation, may pull the plug before the new approach is fully tested.

And terrible not only for Iraqis. For the French, the price of failure in Algeria was the collapse of one Republic and a permanent stain on the next--along with the deep alienation of the French military from the political establishment that it believed (with considerable justification) had betrayed it. Here at home, it took the American military almost a decade and a half to recover its confidence and resiliency after the failure and humiliation of Vietnam. How we would weather another and even more consequential humiliation is anybody's guess; but the stakes are enormous, and the clock is ticking."

How t6o Win in Iraq!! Excellent

Talisman Gate: Absolutely Worth It

Talisman Gate: Absolutely Worth It

Pretty good summation:

"Was it worth it?" is a question that I hear at every anniversary of the Iraq war, and it gets more pointed and pained — and asked more accusingly by some — with every passing year and especially this week as we mark the fourth anniversary after a particularly rough year.

And I can never understand the bewildered and disappointed look upon the questioner's face — whether they be well-meaning or sanctimonious — when I answer, matter-of-factly, "Yes, of course."

I am expected to atone for all that's gone wrong, and when I don't, it seems that I am violating some social norm. I am expected to repent the sins of war and recant the folly of wanting to fix things by war, as some of the earlier war-supporters have done.

But I don't feel guilty over wanting Saddam Hussein gone, and I am certainly not guilty of what his loyalists and what the jihadists and death squads have done to Iraq since his ouster.

I don't answer for other Iraqis, or for the Americans who too have sacrificed so much. I answer for myself as a war supporter, a war enabler, and a continuing believer: Yes, it was worth it.

I've spent the better portion of my life working toward Saddam's overthrow. I was fully aware of the very real sacrifices made by those before me who had confronted Saddam and his Baath Party, and the consequences of their actions. The tyrant would not vanish by wishing him away — he had to be fought.

Iraqi Mojo: What Went Wrong?

Iraqi Mojo: What Went Wrong?

Those were simpler days indeed, before the endless waves of car bombings, before the thousands of Iraqi and American deaths, before the descent into chaos and sectarian violence that has driven liberal idealists like Makiya into bouts of hand-wringing over a single inescapable question: What went wrong?

Which brings us to his next book.

"I want to look into myself, look at myself, delve into the assumptions I had going into the war," he said. "Now it seems necessary to reflect on the society that has gotten itself into this mess. A question that looms more and more for me is: Just what did 30 years of dictatorship do to 25 million people?"

Econbrowser: Some Implications of "Staying the Course"

Econbrowser: Some Implications of "Staying the Course"
Interesting info on trroop strength and casualties.

Wishing Wealth: GMI: 6; GMI-L: 100; Markets in Stage 2 up-trend

Wishing Wealth: GMI: 6; GMI-L: 100; Markets in Stage 2 up-trend

Good info:

Monday, March 26, 2007

GMI: 6; GMI-L: 100; Markets in Stage 2 up-trend

The GMI remains at 6 and the GMI-L is back to 100. Thus, all of my short and long term indicators are positive. My long term trend indicator is based on Stan Weinstein's stage analysis (see book to right). Stan used the 30 week moving average as the best indicator of a stock's or the market's trend. The recent steep decline in the major indexes caused my short term daily indicators to flash negative. However, Weinstein's indicators stayed positive throughout the decline. In fact, the major indexes all found support at their rising 30 week averages. Thus, as this chart of the Nasdaq 100 index shows, the markets remain in a Weinstein Stage 2 up-trend. I never own stocks when they or the market are below their 30 week averages. The recent support found at the 30 week average in all of the major stock indexes suggests to me that that the up-trend remains intact. In my trading account I get in or out of stocks based on my daily indicators. In my long term mutual funds, however, I only get out of the market when the 30 week averages flash trouble. This rule got me out of the market in 2000 and back in in 2003.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.

Monday, March 26, 2007 at 12:01 AM | Permalink

Simple Tip Lowers Heart Disease Risk, but Your Doctor Frequently Ignores It

Simple Tip Lowers Heart Disease Risk, but Your Doctor Frequently Ignores It

"Hey, give these 'poor' doctors a break. They slaved through medical school, stacking supermarket shelves and washed greasy 'common' people's dishes, whilst continually having to remember their high-falutin' edyoocation mantra: 'depression, Prozac. Male pattern baldness, Propecia. High cholesterol, statins. Toenail fungus, Sporanox. Hypertension, AT2 antagonists. Heart failure, beta-blockers, alpha-blockers, diuretics, BNP inhibitors?..and all the while having to keep up with the 'new diseases' and new, increasingly expensive drugs that are flooding the market.

"They couldn't justify 5-6 years of medical school to simply learn that eating well and moderate exercise can maintain good health. 'Your renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system has run amok and will require some highly complicated polypharmacy to get control.' sounds much more important than 'All you need to do Mrs. Smith is to eat a healthy, unprocessed food diet and get some moderate exercise.'"

First Principles by Charley Reese

Jefferson principles of government

How far we have fallen!

Michael Fumento.com - Weblog - John Edwards vs. Babies and Moms

Michael Fumento.com - Weblog - John Edwards vs. Babies and Moms

John Edwards vs. Babies and Moms

By Michael Fumento

John Edwards, being neither a woman nor a racial minority, isn't doing especially well in his campaign to become his party's candidate for president. Alas for him, if he were half as successful in campaigning for America's top job as he was as a trial lawyer, he might be sworn in tomorrow. As I report in The American Spectator Online, Edwards won at least 94 cases, according to Lawyers Weekly, of which 54 netted more than $1 million each. Normally attorneys take a 40 percent cut of cases that go to trial. In his last year as a practicing attorney, 1997, he reported an adjusted gross income of $11.4 million.

Of course, perhaps he deserved it - but he didn't. He specialized in a particularly scummy area of malpractice, blaming Ob/gyn doctors for cerebral palsy. In fact, a 2003 study evaluated almost 1,000 life births to see if cerebral palsy or other problems could by affected by type of birth. Conclusion: "Delivery mode (whether vaginal or cesarean delivery) was not associated with any of the outcomes that were evaluated."

Yet malpractice suits against doctors with the misfortune to deliver CP babies has caused their insurance rates to rocket and to engage in "defensive medicine," by resorting to cesarean deliveries when they're actually not needed. Other research has shown that cesareans increase the risk of death and other problems for both mother and child; yet such procedures are skyrocketing. Many cesareans are the mother's preference because of convenience of timing or wanting to avoid the pain of labor; but no mother should be given one because trial lawyers roam the land telling all parents that if you didn't get a perfect baby the doctor must have screwed up.

George Soros Buys 2 Million Shares of Halliburton - Wonkette

George Soros Buys 2 Million Shares of Halliburton - Wonkette

Mortality

Mortality
Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in one pretty and well preserved piece, but to skid across the line broadside, thoroughly used up, worn out, leaking oil, shouting GERONIMO!

The Other Side of Kim du Toit - TheOtherSideofKim Front Page

The Other Side of Kim du Toit - TheOtherSideofKim Front Page

1. Jarlsberg (Norway)—Unquestionably one of the finest cheeses ever made. It’s smooth, with a slight “nutty” flavor and lovely aftertaste, and if I was told I could only ever eat one cheese for the rest of my life, this would be the hands-down winner. Even the “Lite” variant (made not in Norway, but under license in Ohio) is better than most other cheeses.

2. Emmentaler AO (Switzerland)—Almost as good as Jarlsberg, Emmentaler is smoother yet more nutty-flavored, is a superb after-dinner snack, and it’s my cheese of choice if the store has inexplicably run out of Jarlsberg. It’s also kinda spendy, because [duh] it’s made in Switzerland.

3. Wisconsin String Cheese (U.S.A.)—Specifically, I’m referring to the stuff sold at The Brat Stop (at the intersection of I-94 and Hwy 50 in Kenosha, WI). It’s the jerky of dairy foods: dry, chewy and super-salty, comes apart in long threads, and whenever we’re within fifty miles of the place, it’s a mandatory stop. Annoyingly, it’s not branded at all, so finding it is a chore (it’s not even listed on their website). Just go to the Brat Stop and buy a few bags, if that kind of cheese is to your taste. Don’t be surprised if one of the bags doesn’t survive the trip home, because it’s perfect road food.

4. Old Amsterdam Gouda (Holland)—My favorite aromatic cheese in the world, Old Amsterdam has a wonderful flavor reminiscent of port wine. Dry, it crumbles to the touch, and you can’t eat a big piece of it. Just a few crumbs melted in the mouth will suffice. And then again, a few minutes later. And again, and again… (Old Amsterdam also makes a 5-year-old variant, but that’s too strong, even for me.)

5. Cheddar (England)—Forget those impostors made all over the world, all called “cheddar” but none deserving of the name. The real thing (made in Cheddar, Somerset) is one of those rare cheeses which not only makes a fine snack, but also cooks up well, for example in a grilled ("toasted") cheese sandwich. If I lived in England, there’d be a 5lb block of the stuff in my fridge, and it would never have a chance to go off. Tech Support and I once ended up in a pub in Fulham somewhere, and ordered a cheese sandwich. It was just bread, butter and cheddar, with a side order of chips—a simplicity which would have delighted old G.K.—and it was one of the best light meals we’d ever had.

Now for the “ingredient” cheeses.

1. Burrini (Italy)—I’ve never been able to find this anywhere except Treasure Island in Chicago. Made in the south of Italy, it’s a hard, aromatic Provolone-style pear-shaped cheese, which in turn encases a small ball of sweet, creamy butter. It’s too rich to snack on by itself (although I have), and is best eaten grated over a salad. If you use it thus, you won’t need any salad dressing. If you really want to indulge yourself, a thin slice melted on toast will make you think you’ve died and gone to heaven. The Italians cut it open, spread the butter on their bread, and then add the cheese, so Burrini is like a self-contained sandwich-builder.

2. Beyaz Peynir (Turkey)—A variant of Greek feta cheese. Combine this wonderful stuff with spicy Turkish sausage (made of very finely-ground beef and lamb), throw in some sun-dried tomatoes or roasted sweet red peppers, and you have perhaps the perfect savory appetizer. It’s a combination of sheep- and goat’s milk.

3. Mozzarella (Italy)—Thickly-sliced, with roasted sweet red peppers (again) and an aromatic olive oil sprinkled over it. My second-favorite appetizer after Beyaz Peynir. If anyone’s curious where the term “buffalo mozzarella” comes from, it’s because all mozzarella was once made exclusively from the milk of water buffaloes—but nowadays the Mozzarella di bufala available in the U.S. is made from a mixure of buffalo- and cow’s milk. (Incidentally, Monzeta is a mozzarella-based equivalent of Burrini, but has a blander flavor.)

4. Kasseri (Greece)—Yeah, it’s the basis of saganaki, that flaming dish brought to your table with cries of ”Oppa!” and doused with squeezed lemon. Never mind the ceremony, Stavros, just gimme the damn cheese, which is fabulous. (It’s made purely from goat’s milk, by the way.)

COLOR BLINDNESS

Topics

Verrrry interesting info about color blindness.

The Other Side of Kim du Toit - TheOtherSideofKim Front Page

The Other Side of Kim du Toit - TheOtherSideofKim Front Page

Great Letter!!!

Here’s a letter which made my day, and made me feel quite humble:

Hello Kim. My name is Nick A___. I recently discovered your site and I must say I was shocked.

In the best possible way.

I found a link to your article about the pussification of America from someone’s comment on another blog. The article (and your others which I have read so far) really invigorated me and reminded me of what I am.

I am 18 years old and will very soon (less than a week) be enlisting in the United States Marine Corps Reserve as infantry (LAV Crewman). Undoubtedly I will soon after be activated and deployed to a combat zone on the other side of the world. Needless to say, I have met a LOT of opposition to my decision to join the Corps. Even though everyone is so gung-ho about “supporting the troops”, the second you say you want to join them, everyone looks at you like you should be wearing a straitjacket. Sometimes it is hard to stay true to what I believe and remember what I stand for when it seems everyone else thinks I’m crazy for doing so, even the people who I hold closest, including many of my friends and my entire family. What I call bravery, they call recklessness, lack of foresight, stupidity, or brainwashed. You reminded me that these people are cowards who believe that their own lives are more important than the freedom of their nation.

Finding someone out there who shares my views in such a clear and frank manner was, as I said, a shocking thing to find in today’s world of appeasers.

Thank you very much for your site, and thank you for showing me that I am not alone. Stay strong and stay healthy.

I responded to him thus:

Nick,

Never mind me. YOU take care of yourself.

Just oblige me with with this one favor: tell everyone you meet in the USMC that we support them, utterly and without reservation. Ignore the Murthas and Pelosis of this world: they are less than the mud you’re going to get on your boots.

And never mind all the whiners and cowards: you’re going on to bigger and better things, and you’re going to be associating with a better class of person.

Don’t bother trying to convert those who think otherwise, because it’s a waste of your time. Instead, think of us—me, and the many thousands of Readers of this website, who not only appreciate what you’re doing, but applaud your decision, loudly and enthusiastically.

I just wish I could go in your place.

Thank you for realizing that honor, duty and courage are important: so important, in fact, that they are worth more than your own life.

You hold the future of this wonderful country in your hands, and as long as you do, the rest of us can sleep soundly at night. Always remember that.

And keep in touch. Please.

Kim

Those of you who are God-fearing folks, you know what to do for young Nick.

We are not worthy.

How To Crack 128-bit Wireless Networks In 60 Seconds

How To Crack 128-bit Wireless Networks In 60 Seconds

Peak Oil Debunked

Peak Oil Debunked

R-Squared Energy Blog: When Will Saudi Arabian Oil Production Peak?

R-Squared Energy Blog: When Will Saudi Arabian Oil Production Peak?

Contrarian view to some degree. However


"I believe that by summer (barring recession) we should know one way or another, because the market looks to be undersupplied at the moment. I think Saudi will be called upon to open the taps by summer. If they can't, look out."

The Oil Drum | Saudi Arabia and that $1000 bet

The Oil Drum | Saudi Arabia and that $1000 bet: "Saudi Arabia and that $1000 bet"

Basically Saudi will not have prod in excess of 10 MM BPD ever again!

The Oil Drum | A Nosedive Toward the Desert

The Oil Drum | A Nosedive Toward the Desert

Purty Scary!

GraphOilogy: The Hubbert Parabola

GraphOilogy: The Hubbert Parabola

amazin' curves on all co/untries!

GraphOilogy: Could Saudi Arabia Be More Than 70% Depleted?

GraphOilogy: Could Saudi Arabia Be More Than 70% Depleted?

Random Roger's Big Picture: 25%!

Random Roger's Big Picture: 25%!

Apollo Investment (AINV) 20.8
Diana Shipping (DSX) 28.9
Deerfield Triarc (DFR) 19.0
Advent Claymore G&I Fund (LCM) 22.4
S&P 500 Covered Call Fund (BEP) 18.4

Energy Roundup - WSJ.com : The New Seven Sisters

Energy Roundup - WSJ.com : The New Seven Sisters

The New Seven Sisters

Posted by WSJ.com Staff

The Financial Times writes today that the world’s oil industry is dominated by a new group of “Seven Sisters,” a reference to the old lineup of oil giants that dominated the world before OPEC rose to prominence: Esso (now Exxon Mobil), BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, Mobil (now part of Exxon Mobil), Gulf Oil (now split between BP and Chevron) and Texaco (now also part of Chevron).

The new Seven, per the FT, are Saudi Aramco, Russia’s Gazprom, CNPC of China (parent of PetroChina), NIOC of Iran, Venezuela’s PDVSA, Brazil’s Petrobras and Petronas of Malaysia.

All are state-controlled. A few are owned by governments that are less-than-friendly, if not downright hostile, toward the U.S. Many are flexing their “resource nationalism,” wresting control of lucrative oil and gas projects from foreign companies, including the old Sisters.

Together, the FT points out, the new Sisters control more than 10 times the oil reserves of the old Sisters. They produce more than twice as much oil as the old Sisters.

The new Sisters only lag the old Sisters in net income. But the new group will likely control the world’s production for decades to come, so they should make up that ground soon. And investors have already bid up their shares on the world’s stock markets, lifting the market capitalizations of the biggest New Sisters past those of most of their developed-world rivals. The Old Sisters may never make up that lost ground.

Bill Cara: The why and how America is in trouble, Mon., Mar. 12, 2007, 10:33 PM

Bill Cara: The why and how America is in trouble, Mon., Mar. 12, 2007, 10:33 PM

The sky is falling!!!!